Beijing Guoan 3-0 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 42%, yet in-form Beijing Guoan provide a compelling counter-argument — this Beijing Guoan vs Changchun Yatai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 plays host to Beijing Guoan versus Changchun Yatai in Super League, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Thursday 15 December 2022 at 07:00 UTC.
Form
Beijing Guoan (all games): 7W 0D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Beijing Guoan's home record at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Changchun Yatai's overall Super League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Changchun Yatai's form when playing away from home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Beijing Guoan's favour (2.10 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Beijing Guoan register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Changchun Yatai in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Beijing Guoan, 1 for Changchun Yatai and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2022, ended 1–0 with Beijing Guoan winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Beijing Guoan half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Changchun Yatai half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 60% versus Changchun Yatai 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 58% | Changchun Yatai 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.66 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.165 / defence 1.088 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.210 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.418. Changchun Yatai have an above-average attack strength of 1.210 — the away xG of 1.87 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Beijing Guoan games / 44 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 34% | Draw 24% | Changchun Yatai 42%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | Changchun Yatai 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Changchun Yatai at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Beijing Guoan (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.52 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 70% | Changchun Yatai 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 • Kick-off: Thursday 15 Dec 2022, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 34% | Draw 24% | Changchun Yatai 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 69% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.66 / Changchun Yatai 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.165 / def 1.088 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.210 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.418 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Changchun Yatai xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 07:00 on Thursday 15 December 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Changchun Yatai?
Beijing Guoan 3 - 0 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 34% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Changchun Yatai?
Record (3 meetings): Beijing Guoan 2W | Draws 0 | Changchun Yatai 1W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Changchun Yatai in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Beijing Guoan's attack at 1.17x the league average against Changchun Yatai's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Changchun Yatai's attack (1.21x) against Beijing Guoan's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.87.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
34%
2.98
24%
4.14
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
3.52
1.87
Changchun Yatai xG
2.98
34%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.27
Clean Sheet
15%
6.47
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
5%
19.28
8%
12.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.1 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.87 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beijing Guoan's recent record stands at 24W 13D 15L from 52 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Changchun Yatai, meanwhile, have gone 21W 17D 14L across 52 games — 1.54 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Beijing Guoan against 1.54 for Changchun Yatai. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Beijing Guoan have managed 11W 9D 4L from 24 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Changchun Yatai's away record stands at 10W 8D 6L across 24 trips, a 1.58 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.46 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 24W 13D 15L in their last 52 games (1.63 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 21W 17D 14L in their last 52 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.75 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Changchun Yatai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Changchun Yatai in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Beijing Guoan go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beijing Guoan won 8-1 on 28 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beijing Guoan have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Beijing Guoan
1
Draws
2
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Changchun Yatai?
From 10 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 7, Changchun Yatai have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when Changchun Yatai 0-4 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Changchun Yatai?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Beijing Guoan, 67% for Changchun Yatai — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Beijing Guoan and 67% for Changchun Yatai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Changchun Yatai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Beijing Guoan's games and 67% of Changchun Yatai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Beijing Guoan's matches and 67% of Changchun Yatai's.
Do Beijing Guoan and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Beijing Guoan run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Changchun Yatai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Changchun Yatai 3-0 at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2, Regular Season - 31, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.66 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.87 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Beijing Guoan beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Changchun Yatai landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.17 / defence 1.09 against Changchun Yatai attack 1.21 / defence 1.04, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 34% | Draw 24% | Changchun Yatai 42%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Beijing Guoan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 58%, Changchun Yatai 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (52 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (52 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beijing Guoan 1.63 PPG, Changchun Yatai 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beijing Guoan win broke the near-deadlock. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.