Henan Jianye 6-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Henan Jianye (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Henan Jianye face Shijiazhuang Y. J..
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Shijiazhuang Y. J. travel to Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium to take on Henan Jianye. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 October 2023, 08:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Henan Jianye — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye's home record at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have recorded 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Henan Jianye have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Henan Jianye register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Henan Jianye have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 5 past contests while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have managed just 0 wins.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Jun 2023, ended 1–0 with Henan Jianye winning.
The historical record gives Henan Jianye a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Shijiazhuang Y. J. in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 48% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 48% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 2.13 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.105 / defence 0.782 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.835 / defence 1.295. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.183. Shijiazhuang Y. J. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.295 — this is suppressing Henan Jianye's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Henan Jianye's defence rating of 0.782 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Henan Jianye games / 61 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 68% | Draw 19% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 12%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.47 | Draw 5.26 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Henan Jianye (68%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Henan Jianye 60% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 68% | Draw 19% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 48% | xG Henan Jianye 2.13 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 1.105 / def 0.782 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.835 / def 1.295 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
48%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Henan Jianye 6 - 0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 68% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 12% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Record (5 meetings): Henan Jianye 3W | Draws 2 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Henan Jianye's attack rating (1.10) and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 2.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 1-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
68%
1.46
19%
5.18
12%
8.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.90
0.77
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
1.46
68%
Home win
5.18
19%
Draw
8.18
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
12%
8.38
Win to Nil
32%
3.16
1%
68.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 0.77 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Henan Jianye have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 24W 16D 20L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s form line: 18W 17D 25L from 60 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Henan Jianye on 1.47 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Henan Jianye have posted 1.79 PPG from 29 outings (15W 7D 7L).
On the road, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 10W 6D 13L from 29 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.22 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 24W 16D 20L in their last 60 games (1.47 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.79 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Shijiazhuang Y. J. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J. runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2023, when Henan Jianye won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Shijiazhuang Y. J. specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Henan Jianye
2
Draws
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 8 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 5, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2024, when Henan Jianye 0-2 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 52%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Henan Jianye) and 62% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Henan Jianye's games and 59% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Henan Jianye vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Henan Jianye's matches and 62% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s.
Do Henan Jianye and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Henan Jianye run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 6-0 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 2.13 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.77 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Henan Jianye beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.10 / defence 0.78 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.83 / defence 1.29, drawn from 60/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 68% | Draw 19% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 12%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 48%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.47 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.