Changchun Yatai 3-1 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 54%, yet in-form Shijiazhuang Y. J. provide a compelling counter-argument — this Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Shijiazhuang Y. J. travel to Changchun's People Stadium to take on Changchun Yatai in Super League (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Changchun Yatai stand at 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Changchun Yatai have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shijiazhuang Y. J. — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Changchun Yatai's last 10 home games and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Changchun Yatai have won 2, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 19 May 2023, ended Changchun Yatai 4–2 Shijiazhuang Y. J. — a Changchun Yatai win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Changchun Yatai in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 36% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 57% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 54% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.97 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 1.056 / defence 1.024 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.982 / defence 1.255. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.224. Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence rating of 1.255 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Changchun Yatai's projected output up. Data: built from Changchun Yatai's last 56 games and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 56.
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 54% | Draw 24% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 23%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 1.86 | Draw 4.24 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 4.40. Changchun Yatai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.97 / 1.23) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Changchun Yatai are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shijiazhuang Y. J. (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Changchun Yatai's last 10 home games and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Changchun Yatai 70% (last 10 home games) | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, matchday 23 | Venue: Changchun's People Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 54% | Draw 24% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Changchun Yatai 1.97 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 1.056 / def 1.024 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.982 / def 1.255 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. FAQs
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Changchun's People Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Changchun Yatai 3 - 1 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Changchun's People Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Super League fixture (matchday 23) (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 54% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Changchun Yatai's attack rating (1.06) and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack versus Changchun Yatai's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Changchun Yatai's last 56 games and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
54%
1.86
24%
4.24
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
3.20
1.23
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
14%
7.18
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
3%
31.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.23 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Changchun Yatai come into this having played 56 games, going 19W 18D 19L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-W.
On the other side, Shijiazhuang Y. J. sit at 1.32 PPG from 56 outings (19W 17D 20L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Changchun Yatai on 1.34 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Changchun Yatai's home form reads 9W 9D 9L across their last 27 home games, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have taken 1.44 points per game from their last 27 away games (11W 6D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.30 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Changchun Yatai (Home) vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. Form FAQs
What form are Changchun Yatai and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 19W 18D 19L in their last 56 games (1.34 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 19W 17D 20L in their last 56 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.33 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 27 July 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Changchun Yatai's record when hosting Shijiazhuang Y. J. specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Changchun Yatai
0
Draws
2
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Changchun Yatai have won 4, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 July 2024: Changchun Yatai 1-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 56%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Changchun Yatai) and 67% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.).
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai have failed to score in 26% of games; Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Changchun Yatai and Shijiazhuang Y. J. matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Changchun Yatai's games and 63% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Changchun Yatai and Shijiazhuang Y. J. matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 67% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Shijiazhuang Y. J. matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 89% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 89% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Changchun Yatai cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3-1 at Changchun's People Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.97 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.23 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Changchun Yatai beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 1.06 / defence 1.02 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.98 / defence 1.25, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 54% | Draw 24% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 23%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 54%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.34 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Changchun Yatai win broke the near-deadlock. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.