Beijing Guoan 2-0 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 68% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Beijing Guoan host Qingdao Jonoon at Workers' Stadium in Super League (matchday 18). Kick-off is Saturday 22 July 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Beijing Guoan stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Beijing Guoan at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Qingdao Jonoon — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Qingdao Jonoon away from home: 0W 2D 6L from their last 8 away games — 0.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Beijing Guoan are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Beijing Guoan's games and 62% of Qingdao Jonoon's (from Beijing Guoan's last 10 home games and Qingdao Jonoon's last 8 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Beijing Guoan, 1 for Qingdao Jonoon and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 25 Apr 2023, ended Beijing Guoan 1–3 Qingdao Jonoon — a Qingdao Jonoon win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Beijing Guoan in-play tendencies (last 17 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Qingdao Jonoon in-play tendencies (last 17 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 71% versus Qingdao Jonoon 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 47% | Qingdao Jonoon 47%). Note also that Qingdao Jonoon surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Beijing Guoan recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 2.33 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.328 / defence 0.944 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.777 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.214. Beijing Guoan carry an above-average attack rating of 1.328 — their 2.33 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Qingdao Jonoon's attack rating of 0.777 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Data: built from Beijing Guoan's last 51 games and Qingdao Jonoon's last 17.
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 68% | Draw 21% | Qingdao Jonoon 11%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.47 | Draw 4.83 | Qingdao Jonoon 8.96. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (68%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beijing Guoan are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Beijing Guoan's last 10 home games and Qingdao Jonoon's last 8 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Beijing Guoan 60% (last 10 home games) | Qingdao Jonoon 62% (last 8 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, matchday 18 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 July 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 68% | Draw 21% | Qingdao Jonoon 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Beijing Guoan 2.33 / Qingdao Jonoon 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.328 / def 0.944 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.777 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Qingdao Jonoon xG
55%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon FAQs
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Saturday 22 July 2023 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Beijing Guoan 2 - 0 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Super League fixture (matchday 18) (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 68% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 11% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Beijing Guoan's attack rating (1.33) and Qingdao Jonoon's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 2.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Jonoon's attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Beijing Guoan's last 51 games and Qingdao Jonoon's last 17 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
68%
1.47
21%
4.83
11%
8.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
3.23
0.89
Qingdao Jonoon xG
1.47
68%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
8.96
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
10%
10.33
Win to Nil
28%
3.58
1%
92.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 0.89 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Beijing Guoan's recent record stands at 6W 7D 4L from 17 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Qingdao Jonoon, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 9L across 17 games — 0.94 PPG, with L-D-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beijing Guoan by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Qingdao Jonoon heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Beijing Guoan have managed 4W 3D 1L from their last 8 home games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Beijing Guoan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Qingdao Jonoon's away record stands at 0W 2D 6L across their last 8 away games, a 0.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 1.29 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
Beijing Guoan (Home) vs Qingdao Jonoon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon Form FAQs
What form are Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 6W 7D 4L in their last 17 games (1.47 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 4W 4D 9L in their last 17 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.88 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 9 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Beijing Guoan have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Oct 2024, when Beijing Guoan won Beijing Guoan 6-0 Qingdao Jonoon.
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Qingdao Jonoon specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
2
Draws
2
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 October 2026: Qingdao Jonoon 0-3 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Qingdao Jonoon see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 62%, Qingdao Jonoon 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Beijing Guoan) and 50% (Qingdao Jonoon).
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Qingdao Jonoon in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Beijing Guoan's games and 62% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Beijing Guoan's recent games and 50% of Qingdao Jonoon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 50% of Qingdao Jonoon's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beijing Guoan cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Qingdao Jonoon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Qingdao Jonoon 2-0 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 2.33 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.89 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.33 / defence 0.94 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.78 / defence 1.18, drawn from 51/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 68% | Draw 21% | Qingdao Jonoon 11%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 47%, Qingdao Jonoon 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.