Changchun Yatai 1-1 Nantong Zhiyun – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Changchun Yatai face Nantong Zhiyun.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Changchun's People Stadium plays host to Changchun Yatai versus Nantong Zhiyun in Super League (matchday 20). Kick-off: Friday 4 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time.
Current Form
Changchun Yatai's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Changchun Yatai at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Nantong Zhiyun have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Nantong Zhiyun's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 5L across their last 9 road games (0.44 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Changchun Yatai, 0.80 for Nantong Zhiyun — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Changchun Yatai's last 10 home games and Nantong Zhiyun's last 9 away games) — Changchun Yatai have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Nantong Zhiyun in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Changchun Yatai, 0 for Nantong Zhiyun and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 6 May 2023, ended Changchun Yatai 1–0 Nantong Zhiyun — a Changchun Yatai win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Changchun Yatai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 19 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Nantong Zhiyun goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 19 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 100%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Changchun Yatai 63% and Nantong Zhiyun 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 58% | Nantong Zhiyun 32%). Note also that Nantong Zhiyun surrender HT leads in 100% of cases while Changchun Yatai recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.56 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 1.122 / defence 1.172 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.709 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.213. Nantong Zhiyun's attack rating of 0.709 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Data: built from Changchun Yatai's last 53 games and Nantong Zhiyun's last 19.
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 48% | Draw 30% | Nantong Zhiyun 22%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 2.09 | Draw 3.34 | Nantong Zhiyun 4.51. Changchun Yatai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Changchun Yatai at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Changchun Yatai 70% (last 10 home games) | Nantong Zhiyun 67% (last 9 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun | Competition: Super League, matchday 20 | Venue: Changchun's People Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 4 August 2023 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 48% | Draw 30% | Nantong Zhiyun 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Changchun Yatai 1.56 / Nantong Zhiyun 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 1.122 / def 1.172 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.709 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Nantong Zhiyun xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun FAQs
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Friday 4 August 2023 at Changchun's People Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Changchun Yatai 1 - 1 Nantong Zhiyun.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun being played?
The match is being played at Changchun's People Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun is a Super League fixture (matchday 20) (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 48% chance of winning, Nantong Zhiyun a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Nantong Zhiyun will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Changchun Yatai's attack at 1.12x the league average against Nantong Zhiyun's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nantong Zhiyun's attack (0.71x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from Changchun Yatai's last 53 games and Nantong Zhiyun's last 19 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
48%
2.09
30%
3.34
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.57
1.01
Nantong Zhiyun xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
5%
21.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.1 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Nantong Zhiyun expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.01 for Nantong Zhiyun, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Changchun Yatai come into this having played 19 games, going 7W 6D 6L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-D.
On the other side, Nantong Zhiyun sit at 0.74 PPG from 19 outings (2W 8D 9L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-L across their last five.
Changchun Yatai carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of Nantong Zhiyun — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Changchun Yatai's home form reads 4W 3D 2L across their last 9 home games, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Nantong Zhiyun have taken 0.44 points per game from their last 9 away games (0W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Changchun Yatai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Nantong Zhiyun are on 0.79 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Changchun Yatai have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Nantong Zhiyun in 63%.
Last 19 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Nantong Zhiyun
Blended
Changchun Yatai (Home) vs Nantong Zhiyun (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Nantong Zhiyun
Blended
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun Form FAQs
What form are Changchun Yatai and Nantong Zhiyun in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 7W 6D 6L in their last 19 games (1.42 PPG), while Nantong Zhiyun have gone 2W 8D 9L in their last 19 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Nantong Zhiyun away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.67 PPG; Nantong Zhiyun away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Changchun Yatai and Nantong Zhiyun, the earliest from May 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 14 September 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Changchun Yatai have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Nantong Zhiyun — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Changchun Yatai
1
Draws
0
Nantong Zhiyun
Recent Meetings
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Nantong Zhiyun?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Changchun Yatai have won 3, Nantong Zhiyun have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Nantong Zhiyun last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 September 2024: Changchun Yatai 3-2 Nantong Zhiyun.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Nantong Zhiyun?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Nantong Zhiyun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Changchun Yatai, 67% for Nantong Zhiyun — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Changchun Yatai) and 22% (Nantong Zhiyun).
On the defensive side: Nantong Zhiyun in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Nantong Zhiyun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Changchun Yatai and Nantong Zhiyun matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Changchun Yatai's games and 67% of Nantong Zhiyun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Changchun Yatai and Nantong Zhiyun matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 22% of Nantong Zhiyun's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Nantong Zhiyun matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 78% of Nantong Zhiyun's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Changchun Yatai and Nantong Zhiyun share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Changchun's People Stadium, Regular Season - 20, as Changchun Yatai and Nantong Zhiyun drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.56 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.01 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 1.12 / defence 1.17 against Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.71 / defence 0.93, drawn from 53/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 48% | Draw 30% | Nantong Zhiyun 22%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 58%, Nantong Zhiyun 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Changchun Yatai arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.74. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.