Tianjin Teda 0-0 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda host Changchun Yatai at TEDA Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 July 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Tianjin Teda — All Games: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tianjin Teda's home record at TEDA Football Stadium: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Changchun Yatai have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Changchun Yatai have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Tianjin Teda at 1.50 PPG versus Changchun Yatai's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Tianjin Teda have won 1, Changchun Yatai 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Changchun Yatai in-play and half-time data (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 55% versus Changchun Yatai 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 43% | Changchun Yatai 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.76 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 1.049 / defence 1.162 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.176 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.202. Data: 51 Tianjin Teda games / 52 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 39% | Draw 26% | Changchun Yatai 34%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Changchun Yatai 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.41 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 70% | Changchun Yatai 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: TEDA Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jul 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 39% | Draw 26% | Changchun Yatai 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 69% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.76 / Changchun Yatai 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 1.049 / def 1.162 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.176 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Changchun Yatai xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 29 July 2023 at TEDA Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai?
Tianjin Teda 0 - 0 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at TEDA Football Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 39% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai?
Record (5 meetings): Tianjin Teda 1W | Draws 3 | Changchun Yatai 1W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (1.05) and Changchun Yatai's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Changchun Yatai's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
39%
2.54
26%
3.80
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
3.41
1.64
Changchun Yatai xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.20
Clean Sheet
19%
5.18
17%
5.84
Win to Nil
8%
13.15
6%
17.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.6 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.64 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 20W 18D 13L from 51 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Changchun Yatai, meanwhile, have gone 17W 16D 18L across 51 games — 1.31 PPG, with W-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tianjin Teda on 1.53 PPG, Changchun Yatai on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 10W 10D 6L from 26 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Changchun Yatai's away record stands at 9W 8D 9L across 26 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.49 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Changchun Yatai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 20W 18D 13L in their last 51 games (1.53 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 17W 16D 18L in their last 51 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.54 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Changchun Yatai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Changchun Yatai in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Jul 2021, when Changchun Yatai won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Changchun Yatai specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Tianjin Teda
6
Draws
1
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai?
From 10 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 3, Changchun Yatai have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when Tianjin Teda 2-2 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 58%, Changchun Yatai 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Tianjin Teda) and 65% (Changchun Yatai). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Changchun Yatai in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Changchun Yatai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Tianjin Teda's games and 58% of Changchun Yatai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Tianjin Teda's matches and 65% of Changchun Yatai's.
Do Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Tianjin Teda's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at TEDA Football Stadium, Regular Season - 19, as Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai drew 0-0 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.76 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.64 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Tianjin Teda fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Changchun Yatai landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 1.05 / defence 1.16 against Changchun Yatai attack 1.18 / defence 1.10, drawn from 51/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 39% | Draw 26% | Changchun Yatai 34%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 43%, Changchun Yatai 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.53 PPG, Changchun Yatai 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.