Dalian Aerbin 2-1 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shanghai Shenhua (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Dalian Aerbin face Shanghai Shenhua.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shanghai Shenhua make the trip to Dalian Sports Center to face Dalian Aerbin in Super League, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 August 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Current Form
Dalian Aerbin's overall Super League record this term: 0W 6D 4L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Aerbin's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 games at Dalian Sports Center this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shanghai Shenhua have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shanghai Shenhua are 1.10 PPG clear of Dalian Aerbin in recent Super League fixtures (1.70 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Shanghai Shenhua hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2023, ended 0–1 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Shanghai Shenhua have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Dalian Aerbin — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Shanghai Shenhua — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 60% versus Shanghai Shenhua 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 53% | Shanghai Shenhua 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 0.79 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.725 / defence 0.912 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.923 / defence 0.706. League average goals — home 1.548 / away 1.221. Dalian Aerbin's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Shanghai Shenhua's defence strength of 0.706 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 53 Dalian Aerbin games / 53 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 25% | Draw 37% | Shanghai Shenhua 38%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 4.00 | Draw 2.70 | Shanghai Shenhua 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.82 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. This conflicts with form data: Dalian Aerbin 70% | Shanghai Shenhua 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Dalian Sports Center • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Aug 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 25% | Draw 37% | Shanghai Shenhua 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 38% | xG Dalian Aerbin 0.79 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.725 / def 0.912 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.923 / def 0.706 | league avg home 1.548 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Shanghai Shenhua xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 5 August 2023 at Dalian Sports Center.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Dalian Aerbin 2 - 1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Sports Center.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 25% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 38% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua?
Record (5 meetings): Dalian Aerbin 1W | Draws 0 | Shanghai Shenhua 4W.
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dalian Aerbin's attack rating (0.72) and Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating (0.71), the model arrives at 0.79 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shanghai Shenhua's attack (0.92x) against Dalian Aerbin's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
25%
4.02
37%
2.67
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
1.82
1.03
Shanghai Shenhua xG
4.02
25%
Home win
2.67
37%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
9%
11.24
17%
5.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 16.7 | 8.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.2 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 1.03 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dalian Aerbin come into this having played 53 games, going 14W 18D 21L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-L. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shanghai Shenhua sit at 1.66 PPG from 53 outings (24W 16D 13L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shanghai Shenhua carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Dalian Aerbin's home form reads 8W 11D 7L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Shanghai Shenhua have taken 1.62 points per game from 26 outings (11W 9D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.17 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dalian Aerbin have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 14W 18D 21L in their last 53 games (1.13 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 24W 16D 13L in their last 53 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Shanghai Shenhua's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 1.35 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Dalian Aerbin or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dalian Aerbin have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dalian Aerbin have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Shanghai Shenhua — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Dalian Aerbin
0
Draws
4
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 6 meetings on record, Dalian Aerbin have won 2, Shanghai Shenhua have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 5 August 2023, when Dalian Aerbin 2-1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 69%, Shanghai Shenhua 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Dalian Aerbin) and 38% (Shanghai Shenhua).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Aerbin play Shanghai Shenhua?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Dalian Aerbin's games and 54% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Dalian Aerbin's recent games and 38% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
Dalian Aerbin have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dalian Aerbin defy the odds to beat Shanghai Shenhua 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Aerbin beat Shanghai Shenhua 2-1 at Dalian Sports Center, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 0.79 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.03 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Dalian Aerbin beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 0.72 / defence 0.91 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.92 / defence 0.71, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 25% | Draw 37% | Shanghai Shenhua 38%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a Dalian Aerbin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 53%, Shanghai Shenhua 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Dalian Aerbin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.