Qingdao Jonoon 3-2 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 38%, yet in-form Chengdu Better City provide a compelling counter-argument — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 20 as Qingdao Jonoon welcome Chengdu Better City to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 4 August 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 4W 2D 3L this season (9 games, 1.56 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.56 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chengdu Better City stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chengdu Better City's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Chengdu Better City's 1.60 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Qingdao Jonoon's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Qingdao Jonoon, 1 for Chengdu Better City and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2023, ended 2–3 with Chengdu Better City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Qingdao Jonoon in-play and half-time data (19 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Chengdu Better City in-play and half-time data (19 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 42% versus Chengdu Better City 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 42% | Chengdu Better City 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.36 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.992 / defence 0.905 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.106 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.213. Data: 19 Qingdao Jonoon games / 53 Chengdu Better City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 38% | Draw 31% | Chengdu Better City 31%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Chengdu Better City 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Qingdao Jonoon at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Chengdu Better City (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Qingdao Jonoon 33% | Chengdu Better City 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 4 Aug 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 38% | Draw 31% | Chengdu Better City 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.36 / Chengdu Better City 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.992 / def 0.905 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.106 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Jonoon (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Chengdu Better City xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 4 August 2023 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City?
Qingdao Jonoon 3 - 2 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 38% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Jonoon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City?
Record (1 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 0W | Draws 0 | Chengdu Better City 1W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Chengdu Better City (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Qingdao Jonoon's attack rating (0.99) and Chengdu Better City's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chengdu Better City's attack versus Qingdao Jonoon's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Jonoon Win
38%
2.64
31%
3.20
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
2.57
1.21
Chengdu Better City xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
11%
8.90
8%
12.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.21 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Qingdao Jonoon's recent record stands at 4W 4D 11L from 19 games, a 0.84 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chengdu Better City, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 4L across 19 games — 1.74 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Chengdu Better City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chengdu Better City by 0.90 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Qingdao Jonoon heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Qingdao Jonoon have managed 3W 2D 3L from 8 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.84 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Chengdu Better City's away record stands at 3W 3D 2L across 8 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 1.63 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
Chengdu Better City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 4W 4D 11L in their last 19 games (0.84 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 9W 6D 4L in their last 19 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Chengdu Better City away?
Chengdu Better City's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.38 PPG; Chengdu Better City away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Qingdao Jonoon or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Qingdao Jonoon have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jun 2024, when Chengdu Better City won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Jonoon's record when hosting Chengdu Better City specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Qingdao Jonoon
2
Draws
5
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City?
From 8 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, Chengdu Better City have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon 1-1 Chengdu Better City.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 25%, Chengdu Better City 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 50% (Chengdu Better City).
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Chengdu Better City in 50%; Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play Chengdu Better City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent matches and 50% of Chengdu Better City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs Chengdu Better City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent games and 50% of Chengdu Better City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Chengdu Better City tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Chengdu Better City in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Qingdao Jonoon edge out Chengdu Better City 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Jonoon beat Chengdu Better City 3-2 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.36 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.21 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.99 / defence 0.91 against Chengdu Better City attack 1.11 / defence 0.91, drawn from 19/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 38% | Draw 31% | Chengdu Better City 31%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 42%, Chengdu Better City 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (19 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (19 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with Qingdao Jonoon winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.