Changchun Yatai 1-2 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chengdu Better City at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Changchun Yatai face Chengdu Better City.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Development Area Stadium plays host to Changchun Yatai versus Chengdu Better City in Super League (matchday 9). Kick-off: Saturday 26 April 2025 at 09:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Changchun Yatai have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Changchun Yatai's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Chengdu Better City's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Chengdu Better City away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Changchun Yatai against 1.70 for Chengdu Better City. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Chengdu Better City edge it 3 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Aug 2024, ended Changchun Yatai 0–4 Chengdu Better City — a Chengdu Better City win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Changchun Yatai half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Chengdu Better City half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 60% versus Chengdu Better City 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 58% | Chengdu Better City 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 0.76 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.722 / defence 0.858 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.247 / defence 0.599. League average goals — home 1.758 / away 1.470. Changchun Yatai's attack rating of 0.722 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.76. Chengdu Better City bring a tight defence (rating 0.599, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Changchun Yatai's projected output down. Chengdu Better City have an above-average attack rating of 1.247, which lifts their away xG to 1.57. Data: built from Changchun Yatai's last 38 games and Chengdu Better City's last 38.
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 16% | Draw 29% | Chengdu Better City 55%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 6.15 | Draw 3.48 | Chengdu Better City 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (55%) — a 26pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chengdu Better City at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — low conviction — though recent form (Changchun Yatai's last 10 home games and Chengdu Better City's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches point the other way.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Changchun Yatai 50% (last 10 home games) | Chengdu Better City 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, matchday 9 | Venue: Development Area Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 April 2025 at 09:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 16% | Draw 29% | Chengdu Better City 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Changchun Yatai 0.76 / Chengdu Better City 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.722 / def 0.858 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.247 / def 0.599 | league avg home 1.758 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Chengdu Better City xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City FAQs
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 09:30 UK time on Saturday 26 April 2025 at Development Area Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City?
Changchun Yatai 1 - 2 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at Development Area Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City is a Super League fixture (matchday 9) (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 16% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 55% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Chengdu Better City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Changchun Yatai's attack rating (0.72) and Chengdu Better City's defence rating (0.60), the model arrives at 0.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chengdu Better City's attack (1.25x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from Changchun Yatai's last 38 games and Chengdu Better City's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 0-2 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
16%
6.15
29%
3.48
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.0%
Away win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.33
1.57
Chengdu Better City xG
6.15
16%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
21%
4.82
47%
2.14
Win to Nil
3%
29.62
26%
3.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 15.3 | 12.0 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.57 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Changchun Yatai's recent record stands at 18W 17D 25L from 60 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five.
Chengdu Better City, meanwhile, have gone 33W 13D 14L across 60 games — 1.87 PPG, with L-W-W-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chengdu Better City by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Changchun Yatai heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Changchun Yatai have managed 12W 9D 9L from their last 30 home games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chengdu Better City's away record stands at 13W 8D 9L across their last 30 away games, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 1.93 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Changchun Yatai have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Changchun Yatai (Home) vs Chengdu Better City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City Form FAQs
What form are Changchun Yatai and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 games (1.18 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 33W 13D 14L in their last 60 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Chengdu Better City away?
Chengdu Better City's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.50 PPG; Chengdu Better City away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 12 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Chengdu Better City have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chengdu Better City won Chengdu Better City 4-0 Changchun Yatai on 3 Aug 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 1W 0D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Chengdu Better City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Changchun Yatai
2
Draws
5
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Chengdu Better City?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Changchun Yatai have won 1, Chengdu Better City have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2025: Chengdu Better City 1-0 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Chengdu Better City?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 63%, Chengdu Better City 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Changchun Yatai) and 50% (Chengdu Better City). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Changchun Yatai and Chengdu Better City matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Changchun Yatai's games and 57% of Chengdu Better City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Changchun Yatai and Chengdu Better City matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Changchun Yatai's matches and 50% of Chengdu Better City's.
Do Changchun Yatai and Chengdu Better City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 80% of Chengdu Better City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chengdu Better City edge out Changchun Yatai 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Changchun Yatai 1-2 at Development Area Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 0.76 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.57 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.72 / defence 0.86 against Chengdu Better City attack 1.25 / defence 0.60, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 16% | Draw 29% | Chengdu Better City 55%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 58%, Chengdu Better City 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.