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Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yunnan Yukun vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Yunnan Yukun host SHANGHAI SIPG at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 25 April 2025 at 13:00 UTC.

Recent Form

SHANGHAI SIPG — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

SHANGHAI SIPG away from home this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 1.17 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 0.655 / defence 0.960 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.432 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.741 / away 1.452. Yunnan Yukun's attack strength of 0.655 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SHANGHAI SIPG have an above-average attack strength of 1.432 — the away xG of 2.00 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 8 Yunnan Yukun games / 37 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 20% | Draw 25% | SHANGHAI SIPG 55%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 5.00 | Draw 4.00 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1.82. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.17 / 2.00) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SHANGHAI SIPG at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

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