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Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Dalian Zhixing fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Dalian Zhixing travel to Longquanyi Stadium to take on Sichuan Jiuniu. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 April 2025, 12:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Sichuan Jiuniu stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

At home at Longquanyi Stadium, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sichuan Jiuniu are significantly better at Longquanyi Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 2.31 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.123 / defence 1.392 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.594 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.761 / away 1.477. Data: 38 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 8 Dalian Zhixing games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 60% | Draw 22% | Dalian Zhixing 18%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Dalian Zhixing 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Sichuan Jiuniu (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.31 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Sichuan Jiuniu as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.53 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

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