Wuhan Three Towns 0-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Wuhan Three Towns (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Wuhan Three Towns face Tianjin Teda.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tianjin Teda make the trip to Wuhan Sports Center Stadium to face Wuhan Three Towns in Super League, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 September 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
Wuhan Three Towns (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Three Towns's home record at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Tianjin Teda's overall Super League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tianjin Teda's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Wuhan Three Towns. A 0.90 PPG lead over Tianjin Teda (1.90 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Wuhan Three Towns have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Tianjin Teda in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Wuhan Three Towns 2W, Tianjin Teda 0W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jun 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Wuhan Three Towns goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Tianjin Teda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Three Towns 59% versus Tianjin Teda 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 64% | Tianjin Teda 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 1.35 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.142 / defence 1.003 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.859 / defence 0.768. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.179. Tianjin Teda's defence strength of 0.768 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 59 Wuhan Three Towns games / 58 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 44% | Draw 29% | Tianjin Teda 28%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Tianjin Teda 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wuhan Three Towns at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Wuhan Three Towns 70% | Tianjin Teda 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Sep 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 44% | Draw 29% | Tianjin Teda 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Wuhan Three Towns 1.35 / Tianjin Teda 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.142 / def 1.003 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.859 / def 0.768 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Tianjin Teda xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda?
Wuhan Three Towns 0 - 1 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 44% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda?
Record (3 meetings): Wuhan Three Towns 2W | Draws 1 | Tianjin Teda 0W.
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda in?
Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Wuhan Three Towns's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Tianjin Teda's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Tianjin Teda's attack (0.86x) against Wuhan Three Towns's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 59/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
44%
2.27
29%
3.51
28%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
2.37
1.02
Tianjin Teda xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
3.64
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
16%
6.28
7%
14.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.9 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.02 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wuhan Three Towns's recent record stands at 35W 12D 11L from 58 games, a 2.02 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 22W 20D 16L across 58 games — 1.48 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wuhan Three Towns by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Tianjin Teda heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Wuhan Three Towns have managed 16W 6D 6L from 28 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 10W 8D 10L across 28 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 2.22 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.29 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 35W 12D 11L in their last 58 games (2.02 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 22W 20D 16L in their last 58 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 1.93 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Wuhan Three Towns or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tianjin Teda won 4-0 on 14 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Tianjin Teda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Wuhan Three Towns
2
Draws
3
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda?
From 9 meetings on record, Wuhan Three Towns have won 4, Tianjin Teda have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Tianjin Teda 2-2 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 57%, Tianjin Teda 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Wuhan Three Towns) and 36% (Tianjin Teda).
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Tianjin Teda in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Three Towns play Tianjin Teda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 50% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent games and 36% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Wuhan Three Towns have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Tianjin Teda defy the odds to beat Wuhan Three Towns 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Wuhan Three Towns 0-1 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.35 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.02 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Wuhan Three Towns fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.14 / defence 1.00 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.86 / defence 0.77, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 44% | Draw 29% | Tianjin Teda 28%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Tianjin Teda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 64%, Tianjin Teda 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.48. Form was overturned, with Tianjin Teda winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.