Valour 3-2 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valour vs Cavalry FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cavalry FC make the trip to IG Field to face Valour in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 August 2023 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
Valour (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valour's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at IG Field this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Cavalry FC have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Cavalry FC are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Valour goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games).
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valour 50% versus Cavalry FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valour 30% | Cavalry FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 0.94 xG and Cavalry FC 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 0.772 / defence 0.949 | Cavalry FC attack 1.129 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.288. Valour's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Valour games / 46 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valour 26% | Draw 27% | Cavalry FC 47%. Fair-value odds: Valour 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Cavalry FC 2.13. Cavalry FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cavalry FC are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Valour 50% | Cavalry FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Aug 2023, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 26% | Draw 27% | Cavalry FC 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Valour 0.94 / Cavalry FC 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 0.772 / def 0.949 | Cavalry FC attack 1.129 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Valour xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Cavalry FC xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valour vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Valour vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 12 August 2023 at IG Field.
What was the final score in Valour vs Cavalry FC?
Valour 3 - 2 Cavalry FC.
Where is Valour vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is Valour vs Cavalry FC part of?
Valour vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 26% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valour vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Valour and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Valour vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Cavalry FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valour and Cavalry FC in?
Valour (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Cavalry FC (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Valour's attack rating (0.77) and Cavalry FC's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cavalry FC's attack (1.13x) against Valour's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
26%
3.92
27%
3.65
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Valour xG
Total xG
2.32
1.38
Cavalry FC xG
3.92
26%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
6%
15.57
18%
5.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 13.6 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Valour and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Valour and 1.38 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Valour's recent record stands at 13W 15D 18L from 46 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cavalry FC, meanwhile, have gone 22W 11D 13L across 46 games — 1.67 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cavalry FC by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Valour heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Valour have managed 9W 7D 6L from 22 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cavalry FC's away record stands at 7W 7D 8L across 22 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valour are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.48 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Blended
Cavalry FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valour and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 13W 15D 18L in their last 46 games (1.17 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 22W 11D 13L in their last 46 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valour at home or Cavalry FC away?
Valour's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valour at home: 1.55 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Valour or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valour have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 4-0 on 25 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valour have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cavalry FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Valour
2
Draws
6
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Valour have won 2, Cavalry FC have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valour and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Cavalry FC 3-0 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Valour and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valour see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valour 41%, Cavalry FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 18% for Valour and 50% for Cavalry FC.
On the defensive side: Valour keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Cavalry FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valour play Cavalry FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Valour's recent matches and 54% of Cavalry FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valour vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of Valour's recent games and 50% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valour and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
Valour have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Valour defy the odds to beat Cavalry FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valour beat Cavalry FC 3-2 at IG Field, Regular Season - 9, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 0.94 xG and Cavalry FC 1.38 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Valour beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.77 / defence 0.95 against Cavalry FC attack 1.13 / defence 0.99, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valour 26% | Draw 27% | Cavalry FC 47%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Valour win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 30%, Cavalry FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Valour winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Valour (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.