Valour 1-3 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atlético Ottawa at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valour vs Atlético Ottawa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
IG Field plays host to Valour versus Atlético Ottawa in Canadian Premier League (matchday 9). Kick-off: Saturday 19 August 2023 at 02:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Valour have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Valour have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Atlético Ottawa (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Atlético Ottawa away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Atlético Ottawa arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Valour half-time and goal-timing data (last 47 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games).
Atlético Ottawa half-time and goal-timing data (last 47 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valour 51% versus Atlético Ottawa 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Valour 32% | Atlético Ottawa 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 1.11 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 0.888 / defence 0.978 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.134 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.304. Data: built from Valour's last 47 games and Atlético Ottawa's last 47.
Result probabilities: Valour 29% | Draw 26% | Atlético Ottawa 45%. Fair-value odds: Valour 3.44 | Draw 3.82 | Atlético Ottawa 2.24. Atlético Ottawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atlético Ottawa at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Valour 50% (last 10 home games) | Atlético Ottawa 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, matchday 9 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Saturday 19 August 2023 at 02:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 29% | Draw 26% | Atlético Ottawa 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Valour 1.11 / Atlético Ottawa 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 0.888 / def 0.978 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.134 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Valour xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Atlético Ottawa xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Valour vs Atlético Ottawa FAQs
What time does Valour vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
Valour vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 02:00 UK time on Saturday 19 August 2023 at IG Field.
What was the final score in Valour vs Atlético Ottawa?
Valour 1 - 3 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is Valour vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is Valour vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
Valour vs Atlético Ottawa is a Canadian Premier League fixture (matchday 9) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 29% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valour vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Valour and Atlético Ottawa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Valour vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Valour's attack at 0.89x the league average against Atlético Ottawa's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atlético Ottawa's attack (1.13x) against Valour's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from Valour's last 47 games and Atlético Ottawa's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
29%
3.44
26%
3.82
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Valour xG
Total xG
2.56
1.45
Atlético Ottawa xG
3.44
29%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
7%
14.59
15%
6.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 11.2 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Valour vs Atlético Ottawa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Valour and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Valour and 1.45 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs Atlético Ottawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Valour have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 14W 15D 18L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Atlético Ottawa's form line: 20W 15D 12L from 47 games, 1.60 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Valour against 1.60 for Atlético Ottawa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Valour have posted 1.58 PPG from their last 24 home games (10W 8D 6L).
On the road, Atlético Ottawa have gone 12W 6D 6L from their last 24 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Valour are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Atlético Ottawa are on 1.38 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Blended
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
Valour (Home) vs Atlético Ottawa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Valour
Blended
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
❓ Valour vs Atlético Ottawa Form FAQs
What form are Valour and Atlético Ottawa in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 14W 15D 18L in their last 47 games (1.21 PPG), while Atlético Ottawa have gone 20W 15D 12L in their last 47 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valour at home or Atlético Ottawa away?
Atlético Ottawa's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valour at home: 1.58 PPG; Atlético Ottawa away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Valour or Atlético Ottawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valour have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Atlético Ottawa in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Valour and Atlético Ottawa, the earliest from August 2023. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 5 October 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atlético Ottawa won Atlético Ottawa 5-2 Valour on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valour have gone 0W 2D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Atlético Ottawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Valour
3
Draws
6
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Valour vs Atlético Ottawa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Atlético Ottawa?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Valour have won 1, Atlético Ottawa have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valour and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 October 2025: Valour 3-3 Atlético Ottawa.
Who has won more matches between Valour and Atlético Ottawa?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Valour see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valour 42%, Atlético Ottawa 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 21% for Valour and 42% for Atlético Ottawa.
On the defensive side: Valour keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Atlético Ottawa in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Valour vs Atlético Ottawa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Valour and Atlético Ottawa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Valour's recent matches and 46% of Atlético Ottawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Valour and Atlético Ottawa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Valour's recent games and 42% of Atlético Ottawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valour and Atlético Ottawa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Valour's recent matches and 67% of Atlético Ottawa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atlético Ottawa cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Valour.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atlético Ottawa beat Valour 1-3 at IG Field, Regular Season - 9, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.11 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.45 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Atlético Ottawa outscored their 1.45 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.89 / defence 0.98 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.13 / defence 0.97, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valour 29% | Draw 26% | Atlético Ottawa 45%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 32%, Atlético Ottawa 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valour 1.21 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atlético Ottawa win broke the near-deadlock. Valour (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.