Cavalry FC 2-1 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cavalry FC vs York United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
ATCO Field plays host to Cavalry FC versus York United in Canadian Premier League (matchday 9). Kick-off: Sunday 20 August 2023 at 23:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Cavalry FC have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Cavalry FC have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
York United's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, York United have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Cavalry FC's favour (1.80 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Cavalry FC's last 10 home games and York United's last 10 away games) — Cavalry FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, York United in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
York United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 54% versus York United 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 52% | York United 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.80 xG and York United 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.164 / defence 0.803 | York United attack 1.259 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.317. York United have an above-average attack rating of 1.259, which lifts their away xG to 1.33. Data: built from Cavalry FC's last 47 games and York United's last 48.
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 48% | Draw 23% | York United 28%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 2.07 | Draw 4.28 | York United 3.52. Cavalry FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.80 / 1.33) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cavalry FC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Cavalry FC's last 10 home games and York United's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cavalry FC 60% (last 10 home games) | York United 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, matchday 9 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Sunday 20 August 2023 at 23:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 48% | Draw 23% | York United 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Cavalry FC 1.80 / York United 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.164 / def 0.803 | York United attack 1.259 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.33
York United xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cavalry FC vs York United FAQs
What time does Cavalry FC vs York United kick off?
Cavalry FC vs York United kicked off at 23:00 UK time on Sunday 20 August 2023 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs York United?
Cavalry FC 2 - 1 York United.
Where is Cavalry FC vs York United being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs York United part of?
Cavalry FC vs York United is a Canadian Premier League fixture (matchday 9) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 48% chance of winning, York United a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs York United?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Cavalry FC and York United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cavalry FC vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cavalry FC's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against York United's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. Flip it around — York United's attack (1.26x) against Cavalry FC's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from Cavalry FC's last 47 games and York United's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
48%
2.07
23%
4.28
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
3.13
1.33
York United xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
13%
7.85
5%
21.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cavalry FC vs York United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.33 for York United, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Cavalry FC have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 22W 12D 14L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
York United's form line: 16W 12D 20L from 48 games, 1.25 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Cavalry FC against 1.25 for York United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cavalry FC have posted 2.04 PPG from their last 24 home games (15W 4D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Cavalry FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, York United have gone 9W 6D 9L from their last 24 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.17 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Blended
York United
Blended
Cavalry FC (Home) vs York United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cavalry FC
Blended
York United
Blended
❓ Cavalry FC vs York United Form FAQs
What form are Cavalry FC and York United in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 22W 12D 14L in their last 48 games (1.62 PPG), while York United have gone 16W 12D 20L in their last 48 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or York United away?
Cavalry FC's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 2.04 PPG; York United away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 3 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won Cavalry FC 5-0 York United on 2 Aug 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against York United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Cavalry FC
1
Draws
3
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Cavalry FC vs York United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and York United?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Cavalry FC have won 6, York United have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and York United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 October 2026: York United 3-1 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and York United?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
York United see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 50%, York United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cavalry FC) and 54% (York United).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; York United in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cavalry FC vs York United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cavalry FC and York United matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 50% of York United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cavalry FC and York United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 54% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and York United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 54% of York United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cavalry FC edge out York United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat York United 2-1 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 9, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.80 xG and York United 1.33 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.16 / defence 0.80 against York United attack 1.26 / defence 1.17, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 48% | Draw 23% | York United 28%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 52%, York United 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
York United's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cavalry FC 1.62 PPG, York United 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cavalry FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.