Cavalry FC 2-1 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cavalry FC vs York United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
ATCO Field plays host to Cavalry FC versus York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 20 August 2023 at 22:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cavalry FC have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cavalry FC have posted 5W 4D 1L at ATCO Field — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
York United's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Canadian Premier League this season, York United have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Cavalry FC's favour (1.80 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cavalry FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, York United in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
York United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 54% versus York United 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 52% | York United 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.80 xG and York United 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.164 / defence 0.803 | York United attack 1.259 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.317. York United have an above-average attack strength of 1.259 — the away xG of 1.33 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Cavalry FC games / 48 York United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 48% | Draw 23% | York United 28%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | York United 3.57. Cavalry FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cavalry FC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Cavalry FC 60% | York United 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Aug 2023, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 48% | Draw 23% | York United 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Cavalry FC 1.80 / York United 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.164 / def 0.803 | York United attack 1.259 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.33
York United xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs York United kick off?
Cavalry FC vs York United kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 20 August 2023 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs York United?
Cavalry FC 2 - 1 York United.
Where is Cavalry FC vs York United being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs York United part of?
Cavalry FC vs York United is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 48% chance of winning, York United a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs York United?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Cavalry FC and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and York United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cavalry FC and York United in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. York United (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cavalry FC's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against York United's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. Flip it around — York United's attack (1.26x) against Cavalry FC's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
48%
2.07
23%
4.28
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
3.13
1.33
York United xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
13%
7.85
5%
21.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.33 for York United, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Cavalry FC have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 22W 12D 14L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
York United's form line: 16W 12D 20L from 48 games, 1.25 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-D. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Cavalry FC against 1.25 for York United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cavalry FC have posted 2.04 PPG from 24 outings (15W 4D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Cavalry FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, York United have gone 9W 6D 9L from 24 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.17 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Blended
York United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and York United in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 22W 12D 14L in their last 48 games (1.62 PPG), while York United have gone 16W 12D 20L in their last 48 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or York United away?
Cavalry FC's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 2.04 PPG; York United away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Cavalry FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 5-0 on 2 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against York United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Cavalry FC
1
Draws
2
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 7, York United have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and York United last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Cavalry FC 5-0 York United.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and York United?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
York United see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 50%, York United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cavalry FC) and 54% (York United).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; York United in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play York United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 50% of York United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cavalry FC vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 54% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and York United tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, York United in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cavalry FC edge out York United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat York United 2-1 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 9, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.80 xG and York United 1.33 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.16 / defence 0.80 against York United attack 1.26 / defence 1.17, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 48% | Draw 23% | York United 28%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 52%, York United 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
York United's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cavalry FC 1.62 PPG, York United 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cavalry FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.