Cavalry FC 3-0 Forge – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Forge at 38%, yet in-form Cavalry FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cavalry FC vs Forge fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Forge travel to ATCO Field to take on Cavalry FC in Canadian Premier League (matchday 8). The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 August 2023 at 03:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cavalry FC stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cavalry FC's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Forge have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Forge away from home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Cavalry FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Cavalry FC trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Forge trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 53% versus Forge 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 49% | Forge 40%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cavalry FC surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Forge have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 46% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.08 xG and Forge 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.073 / defence 0.895 | Forge attack 1.017 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.187 / away 1.290. Data: built from Cavalry FC's last 45 games and Forge's last 46.
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 33% | Draw 29% | Forge 38%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 3.01 | Draw 3.49 | Forge 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Forge are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cavalry FC (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Cavalry FC's last 10 home games and Forge's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cavalry FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Forge 20% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, matchday 8 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Saturday 5 August 2023 at 03:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 33% | Draw 29% | Forge 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Cavalry FC 1.08 / Forge 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.073 / def 0.895 | Forge attack 1.017 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.187 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Forge (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Forge xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cavalry FC vs Forge FAQs
What time does Cavalry FC vs Forge kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Forge kicked off at 03:00 UK time on Saturday 5 August 2023 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Cavalry FC 3 - 0 Forge.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Forge part of?
Cavalry FC vs Forge is a Canadian Premier League fixture (matchday 8) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 33% chance of winning, Forge a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Cavalry FC and Forge will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Cavalry FC vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cavalry FC's attack rating (1.07) and Forge's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Forge's attack versus Cavalry FC's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cavalry FC's last 45 games and Forge's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
33%
3.01
29%
3.49
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.25
1.17
Forge xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
10%
9.72
13%
7.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 12.3 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cavalry FC vs Forge Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.17 for Forge, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cavalry FC's recent record stands at 21W 12D 14L from 47 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Forge, meanwhile, have gone 24W 10D 13L across 47 games — 1.74 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cavalry FC on 1.60 PPG, Forge on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cavalry FC have managed 14W 4D 5L from their last 23 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Forge's away record stands at 12W 5D 6L across their last 23 away games, a 1.78 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 1.57 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Forge in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Blended
Forge
Blended
Cavalry FC (Home) vs Forge (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cavalry FC
Blended
Forge
Blended
❓ Cavalry FC vs Forge Form FAQs
What form are Cavalry FC and Forge in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 21W 12D 14L in their last 47 games (1.60 PPG), while Forge have gone 24W 10D 13L in their last 47 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Forge away?
Cavalry FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Forge away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or Forge been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Forge in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2024. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 30 Aug 2025, when Cavalry FC won Cavalry FC 4-1 Forge.
Cavalry FC's record when hosting Forge specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Cavalry FC
4
Draws
2
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Cavalry FC vs Forge H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Forge?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Cavalry FC have won 4, Forge have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Forge last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Cavalry FC 1-1 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Forge?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 52%, Forge 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Cavalry FC) and 35% (Forge).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Forge in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cavalry FC vs Forge Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cavalry FC and Forge matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 35% of Forge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cavalry FC and Forge matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 35% of Forge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and Forge matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 83% of Forge's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cavalry FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Forge.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Forge 3-0 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 8, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.08 xG and Forge 1.17 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Cavalry FC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Forge landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.90 against Forge attack 1.02 / defence 0.85, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 33% | Draw 29% | Forge 38%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Cavalry FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 49%, Forge 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Forge's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cavalry FC 1.60 PPG, Forge 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cavalry FC win broke the near-deadlock. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Forge (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.