Atlético Ottawa 0-0 Forge – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Atlético Ottawa at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atlético Ottawa vs Forge encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Atlético Ottawa welcome Forge to TD Place Stadium in Canadian Premier League (matchday 10). Kick-off is Sunday 27 August 2023 at 01:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Atlético Ottawa have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Atlético Ottawa's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Forge stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Forge's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Atlético Ottawa have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Atlético Ottawa trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Forge trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atlético Ottawa 47% versus Forge 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atlético Ottawa 39% | Forge 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 1.34 xG and Forge 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 1.064 / defence 0.938 | Forge attack 0.947 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.301. Data: built from Atlético Ottawa's last 48 games and Forge's last 49.
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 40% | Draw 28% | Forge 32%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 2.47 | Draw 3.61 | Forge 3.14. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Atlético Ottawa as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Atlético Ottawa 40% (last 10 home games) | Forge 20% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, matchday 10 | Venue: TD Place Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 August 2023 at 01:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 40% | Draw 28% | Forge 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Atlético Ottawa 1.34 / Forge 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 1.064 / def 0.938 | Forge attack 0.947 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Forge xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atlético Ottawa vs Forge FAQs
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs Forge kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs Forge kicked off at 01:00 UK time on Sunday 27 August 2023 at TD Place Stadium.
What was the final score in Atlético Ottawa vs Forge?
Atlético Ottawa 0 - 0 Forge.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at TD Place Stadium.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs Forge part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs Forge is a Canadian Premier League fixture (matchday 10) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 40% chance of winning, Forge a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and Forge will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Atlético Ottawa vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Atlético Ottawa's attack rating (1.06) and Forge's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Forge's attack versus Atlético Ottawa's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Atlético Ottawa's last 48 games and Forge's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
40%
2.47
28%
3.61
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
2.49
1.16
Forge xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
13%
7.84
8%
11.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atlético Ottawa vs Forge Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 1.16 for Forge, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs Forge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atlético Ottawa's recent record stands at 23W 15D 13L from 51 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Forge, meanwhile, have gone 24W 13D 14L across 51 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-W-L-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atlético Ottawa on 1.65 PPG, Forge on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Atlético Ottawa have managed 9W 9D 7L from their last 25 home games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Forge's away record stands at 12W 5D 8L across their last 25 away games, a 1.64 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Atlético Ottawa are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 1.57 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Atlético Ottawa have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Forge in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
Forge
Blended
Atlético Ottawa (Home) vs Forge (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
Forge
Blended
❓ Atlético Ottawa vs Forge Form FAQs
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Forge in coming into this match?
Atlético Ottawa have gone 23W 15D 13L in their last 51 games (1.65 PPG), while Forge have gone 24W 13D 14L in their last 51 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atlético Ottawa at home or Forge away?
Forge's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atlético Ottawa at home: 1.44 PPG; Forge away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Atlético Ottawa or Forge been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atlético Ottawa have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Forge in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2025. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 Sep 2026, when Forge won Forge 3-0 Atlético Ottawa.
Atlético Ottawa's record when hosting Forge specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Atlético Ottawa
3
Draws
4
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Atlético Ottawa vs Forge H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Forge?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Atlético Ottawa have won 3, Forge have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and Forge last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Forge 2-3 Atlético Ottawa.
Who has won more matches between Atlético Ottawa and Forge?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atlético Ottawa 48%, Forge 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Atlético Ottawa) and 36% (Forge).
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Forge in 44%; Atlético Ottawa have failed to score in 32% of games; Forge in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atlético Ottawa vs Forge Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atlético Ottawa and Forge matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Atlético Ottawa's recent matches and 32% of Forge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Atlético Ottawa and Forge matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Atlético Ottawa's recent games and 36% of Forge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atlético Ottawa and Forge matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Atlético Ottawa's recent matches and 76% of Forge's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Atlético Ottawa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atlético Ottawa and Forge finished level at 0-0 at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.34 xG and Forge 1.16 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Atlético Ottawa fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Forge landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 1.06 / defence 0.94 against Forge attack 0.95 / defence 0.92, drawn from 48/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 40% | Draw 28% | Forge 32%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 39%, Forge 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Forge's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atlético Ottawa 1.65 PPG, Forge 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Forge (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.