Supra du Quebec 0-1 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Supra du Quebec at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Supra du Quebec face Cavalry FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
CEPSUM Stadium plays host to Supra du Quebec versus Cavalry FC in Canadian Premier League (Group Stage). Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
Cavalry FC's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cavalry FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Supra du Quebec 1.55 xG and Cavalry FC 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Cavalry FC attack 1.008 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.268. Data: built from Supra du Quebec's last 0 games and Cavalry FC's last 28. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 38% | Draw 28% | Cavalry FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Supra du Quebec 2.64 | Draw 3.59 | Cavalry FC 2.92. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.55 / 1.47) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Supra du Quebec at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Supra du Quebec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Supra du Quebec 0 games, Cavalry FC 28) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: CEPSUM Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 38% | Draw 28% | Cavalry FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Supra du Quebec 1.55 / Cavalry FC 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Cavalry FC attack 1.008 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.810 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Supra du Quebec (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Supra du Quebec xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Cavalry FC xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC FAQs
What time does Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Sunday 3 May 2026 at CEPSUM Stadium.
What was the final score in Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC?
Supra du Quebec 0 - 1 Cavalry FC.
Where is Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at CEPSUM Stadium.
What competition is Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC part of?
Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC is a Canadian Premier League fixture (Group Stage) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Supra du Quebec a 38% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Supra du Quebec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Supra du Quebec and Cavalry FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Supra du Quebec's attack at 0.85x the league average against Cavalry FC's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cavalry FC's attack (1.01x) against Supra du Quebec's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from Supra du Quebec's last 0 games and Cavalry FC's last 28, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Supra du Quebec Win
38%
2.64
28%
3.59
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Supra du Quebec xG
Total xG
3.02
1.47
Cavalry FC xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
9%
11.46
7%
13.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.1 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Supra du Quebec and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Supra du Quebec and 1.47 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Supra du Quebec
Pre-Season
Cavalry FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Supra du Quebec (Home) vs Cavalry FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Supra du Quebec
Pre-Season
Cavalry FC
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Supra du Quebec and Cavalry FC, the earliest from May 2026. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won Cavalry FC 6-0 Supra du Quebec on 26 Sep 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Supra du Quebec have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cavalry FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Supra du Quebec
1
Draws
4
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Supra du Quebec and Cavalry FC?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Supra du Quebec have won 1, Cavalry FC have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Supra du Quebec and Cavalry FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Cavalry FC 2-0 Supra du Quebec.
Who has won more matches between Supra du Quebec and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Supra du Quebec home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Cavalry FC defy the odds to beat Supra du Quebec 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Supra du Quebec 0-1 at CEPSUM Stadium, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Supra du Quebec 1.55 xG and Cavalry FC 1.47 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Supra du Quebec fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Supra du Quebec attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Cavalry FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.01, drawn from 0/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Supra du Quebec 38% | Draw 28% | Cavalry FC 34%, with Supra du Quebec to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Cavalry FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.