Poisson model rates Supra du Quebec at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
CEPSUM Stadium plays host to Supra du Quebec versus HFX Wanderers FC in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. Kick-off: Friday 24 April 2026 at 23:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
HFX Wanderers FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
HFX Wanderers FC away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Statistical Overview
HFX Wanderers FC's full-season record stands at 11W 6D 12L from 29 games. They average 1.5 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 0-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 0-3 (H) / 3-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 4 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 7 games this season. 9 clean sheets this season (5 at home, 4 away). Scored 2+ goals in 6 of 29 games (21%). Penalties this season: 5 scored / 0 missed from 5 awarded. Most used formation: 3-4-3. Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Supra du Quebec 1.51 xG and HFX Wanderers FC 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.996 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.268. Data: 0 Supra du Quebec games / 28 HFX Wanderers FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 37% | Draw 28% | HFX Wanderers FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Supra du Quebec 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | HFX Wanderers FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Supra du Quebec at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Supra du Quebec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: CEPSUM Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 24 Apr 2026, 23:00 UTC • Manager edge: HFX Wanderers FC led by P. Gheisar • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
📈 Recent Form
• HFX Wanderers FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-D • HFX Wanderers FC away split: 0.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | CS 2
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 37% | Draw 28% | HFX Wanderers FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG Supra du Quebec 1.51 / HFX Wanderers FC 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.996 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.810 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Supra du Quebec (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Supra du Quebec xG
Expected Goals
1.45
HFX Wanderers FC xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC kick off?
Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC kicked off at 23:00 on Friday 24 April 2026 at CEPSUM Stadium.
What was the final score in Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Supra du Quebec 2 - 1 HFX Wanderers FC.
Where is Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC being played?
The match is being played at CEPSUM Stadium.
What competition is Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC part of?
Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our statistical model gives Supra du Quebec a 37% chance of winning, HFX Wanderers FC a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Supra du Quebec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Supra du Quebec and HFX Wanderers FC will score (BTTS).
Will Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Supra du Quebec and HFX Wanderers FC?
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
What form are Supra du Quebec and HFX Wanderers FC in?
• HFX Wanderers FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-D • HFX Wanderers FC away split: 0.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | CS 2
What do the betting odds say about Supra du Quebec vs HFX Wanderers FC?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture