Poisson model rates Forge at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Forge vs Supra du Quebec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Group Stage sees Supra du Quebec travel to Tim Hortons Field to take on Forge. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 13 May 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Forge stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Forge have posted 7W 1D 2L at Tim Hortons Field — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tim Hortons Field. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Forge are significantly better at Tim Hortons Field than their overall form suggests.
Season Statistics
Forge's full-season record stands at 16W 10D 4L from 30 games. They average 1.7 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. Biggest win: 5-0 (H) / 0-5 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-2 (H) / 4-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 6 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 4 games. They have failed to score in 2 games this season. 13 clean sheets this season (7 at home, 6 away). Scored 2+ goals in 4 of 30 games (13%). Penalties this season: 5 scored / 0 missed from 5 awarded. Most used formation: 4-1-4-1. Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 2.16 xG and Supra du Quebec 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.038 / defence 0.934 | Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.268. Data: 28 Forge games / 0 Supra du Quebec games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Forge 62% | Draw 23% | Supra du Quebec 15%. Fair-value odds: Forge 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | Supra du Quebec 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Forge (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Forge are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs Supra du Quebec | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Wednesday 13 May 2026, 15:00 UTC • Manager edge: Forge led by B. Smyrniotis • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
📈 Recent Form
• Forge (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-L • Forge home split: 2.20 PPG from 10 | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | CS 6
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 62% | Draw 23% | Supra du Quebec 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 58% | xG Forge 2.16 / Supra du Quebec 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.038 / def 0.934 | Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.810 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Forge (62%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Forge xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Supra du Quebec xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs Supra du Quebec kick off?
Forge vs Supra du Quebec kicked off at 15:00 on Wednesday 13 May 2026 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs Supra du Quebec?
Forge 1 - 0 Supra du Quebec.
Where is Forge vs Supra du Quebec being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs Supra du Quebec part of?
Forge vs Supra du Quebec is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs Supra du Quebec?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 62% chance of winning, Supra du Quebec a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs Supra du Quebec?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Forge and Supra du Quebec will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs Supra du Quebec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Supra du Quebec?
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
What form are Forge and Supra du Quebec in?
• Forge (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-L • Forge home split: 2.20 PPG from 10 | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | CS 6
What do the betting odds say about Forge vs Supra du Quebec?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture