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Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cavalry FC vs York United encounter.

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Full Analysis

ATCO Field plays host to Cavalry FC versus York United in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 21:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Cavalry FC have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Cavalry FC have posted 6W 2D 2L at ATCO Field — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Cavalry FC are significantly better at ATCO Field than their overall form suggests.

York United's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Canadian Premier League this season, York United have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Cavalry FC's favour (1.50 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cavalry FC lead 5W to 3W over the last 8 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 4–1 with Cavalry FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Stats

Across 31 matches this season, Cavalry FC have gone 13W 9D 9L. Their scoring output is 1.7 per match with 1.3 conceded on average. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 0-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 7 games this season. 8 clean sheets this season (5 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 9 of 31 games (29%). Penalties this season: 5 scored / 0 missed from 5 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards per game, 0.10 reds per game.

York United have played 30 games this season, recording 11W 8D 11L. Their scoring output is 1.6 per match with 1.5 conceded on average. Biggest win: 5-1 (H) / 1-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-2 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 5 games this season. 9 clean sheets this season (5 at home, 4 away). Scored 2+ goals in 6 of 30 games (20%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 3.2 yellow cards per game.

York United lead on clean sheets this season (9 vs 8). Penalty activity: Cavalry FC 5/5 vs York United 2/2 this season.

Trading Data

Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

York United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cavalry FC 62% and York United 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 53% | York United 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.85 xG and York United 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.034 / defence 0.979 | York United attack 0.955 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.268. Data: 28 Cavalry FC games / 28 York United games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 51% | Draw 26% | York United 23%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | York United 4.35. Cavalry FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Cavalry FC are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Cavalry FC 50% | York United 50%.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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