Poisson model rates Supra du Quebec at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
CEPSUM Stadium plays host to Supra du Quebec versus Cavalry FC in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Cavalry FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cavalry FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Season Stats
On the season-wide numbers, Cavalry FC show 13W 9D 9L from 31 outings in Canadian Premier League. They average 1.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Biggest win: 4-0 (H) / 0-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 3-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 4 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 7 games this season. 8 clean sheets this season (5 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 9 of 31 games (29%). Penalties this season: 5 scored / 0 missed from 5 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards per game, 0.10 reds per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Supra du Quebec 1.55 xG and Cavalry FC 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Cavalry FC attack 1.008 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.268. Data: 0 Supra du Quebec games / 28 Cavalry FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 38% | Draw 28% | Cavalry FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Supra du Quebec 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Cavalry FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Supra du Quebec at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Supra du Quebec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: CEPSUM Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Manager edge: Cavalry FC led by T. Wheeldon • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
📈 Recent Form
• Cavalry FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-L • Cavalry FC away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | CS 1
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 38% | Draw 28% | Cavalry FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 63% | xG Supra du Quebec 1.55 / Cavalry FC 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Cavalry FC attack 1.008 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.810 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Supra du Quebec (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Supra du Quebec xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Cavalry FC xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 3 May 2026 at CEPSUM Stadium.
What was the final score in Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC?
Supra du Quebec 0 - 1 Cavalry FC.
Where is Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at CEPSUM Stadium.
What competition is Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC part of?
Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Supra du Quebec a 38% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Supra du Quebec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Supra du Quebec and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Supra du Quebec and Cavalry FC?
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
What form are Supra du Quebec and Cavalry FC in?
• Cavalry FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-L • Cavalry FC away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | CS 1
What do the betting odds say about Supra du Quebec vs Cavalry FC?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture