Vasco DA Gama 0-1 Santos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Vasco DA Gama at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasco DA Gama vs Santos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 6 as Vasco DA Gama welcome Santos to Estádio São Januário. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 May 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Santos — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Santos's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 1.20 xG and Santos 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 0.783 / defence 1.155 | Santos attack 0.816 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.196. Vasco DA Gama's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Vasco DA Gama games / 43 Santos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 36% | Draw 32% | Santos 32%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Santos 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vasco DA Gama are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasco DA Gama offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Santos | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estádio São Januário • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 36% | Draw 32% | Santos 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Vasco DA Gama 1.20 / Santos 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 0.783 / def 1.155 | Santos attack 0.816 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Vasco DA Gama (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Santos xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Santos kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Santos kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Estádio São Januário.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Santos?
Vasco DA Gama 0 - 1 Santos.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Santos being played?
The match is being played at Estádio São Januário.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Santos part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Santos is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Santos?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 36% chance of winning, Santos a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Vasco DA Gama the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Santos?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Santos will score (BTTS).
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Santos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Santos in?
Santos (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Santos away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Vasco DA Gama's attack rating (0.78) and Santos's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Santos's attack versus Vasco DA Gama's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasco DA Gama Win
36%
2.82
32%
3.09
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
2.32
1.13
Santos xG
2.82
36%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
12%
8.69
10%
10.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.0 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Santos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Santos expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.13 for Santos, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Santos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Pre-Season
Santos
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2025, when Vasco DA Gama won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vasco DA Gama's record when hosting Santos specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Vasco DA Gama
0
Draws
3
Santos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Santos?
From 5 meetings on record, Vasco DA Gama have won 2, Santos have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Santos last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2026, when Santos 2-1 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Vasco DA Gama and Santos?
Santos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Santos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Santos defy the odds to beat Vasco DA Gama 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santos beat Vasco DA Gama 0-1 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.20 xG and Santos 1.13 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vasco DA Gama fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 0.78 / defence 1.16 against Santos attack 0.82 / defence 1.05, drawn from 5/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 36% | Draw 32% | Santos 32%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Santos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.