Bahia 2-3 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bahia host Flamengo at Arena Fonte Nova in Serie A, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 May 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bahia stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Bahia haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Bahia's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Arena Fonte Nova this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Fonte Nova. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Bahia are significantly better at Arena Fonte Nova than their overall form suggests.
Flamengo — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Flamengo's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Flamengo are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Bahia, 2 for Flamengo and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2021, ended 0–3 with Flamengo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bahia in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Flamengo in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 40% versus Flamengo 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 45% | Flamengo 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.58 xG and Flamengo 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 0.999 / defence 1.165 | Flamengo attack 0.988 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.205. Data: 5 Bahia games / 43 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 41% | Draw 27% | Flamengo 32%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Flamengo 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bahia are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Flamengo (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bahia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Bahia 50% | Flamengo 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 41% | Draw 27% | Flamengo 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Bahia 1.58 / Flamengo 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 0.999 / def 1.165 | Flamengo attack 0.988 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Bahia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Flamengo xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Flamengo kick off?
Bahia vs Flamengo kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Flamengo?
Bahia 2 - 3 Flamengo.
Where is Bahia vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Flamengo part of?
Bahia vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 41% chance of winning, Flamengo a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Bahia and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Flamengo?
Record (2 meetings): Bahia 0W | Draws 0 | Flamengo 2W.
What form are Bahia and Flamengo in?
Bahia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Flamengo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bahia's attack rating (1.00) and Flamengo's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Bahia's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
41%
2.45
27%
3.69
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.97
1.39
Flamengo xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
10%
9.80
7%
15.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.3 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Bahia and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Bahia and 1.39 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Bahia have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 11W 10D 17L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. Bahia haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Flamengo's form line: 18W 8D 12L from 38 games, 1.63 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Flamengo are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bahia.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bahia have posted 1.53 PPG from 19 outings (8W 5D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — Bahia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Flamengo have gone 7W 5D 7L from 19 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Bahia are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.58 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Pre-Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 11W 10D 17L in their last 38 games (1.13 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 18W 8D 12L in their last 38 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Flamengo away?
Bahia's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.53 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Bahia or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Flamengo in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bahia and Flamengo runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Jul 2021, when Flamengo won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bahia's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Bahia
0
Draws
8
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Flamengo?
From 9 meetings on record, Bahia have won 1, Flamengo have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Flamengo 2-0 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bahia see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 42%, Flamengo 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Bahia) and 47% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Bahia have failed to score in 32% of games; Flamengo in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Flamengo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Bahia's recent matches and 63% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Bahia's recent games and 47% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Flamengo tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Flamengo defy the odds to beat Bahia 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Bahia 2-3 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.58 xG and Flamengo 1.39 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Flamengo outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.00 / defence 1.17 against Flamengo attack 0.99 / defence 1.09, drawn from 5/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 41% | Draw 27% | Flamengo 32%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Flamengo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 45%, Flamengo 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Flamengo's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bahia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Flamengo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.