Coritiba 1-1 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Vasco DA Gama at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coritiba vs Vasco DA Gama fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Coritiba and Vasco DA Gama meet at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 11 May 2023 at 23:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Coritiba have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Coritiba have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Coritiba are significantly better at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.19 xG and Vasco DA Gama 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.828 / defence 1.103 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.970 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.240. Data: 42 Coritiba games / 4 Vasco DA Gama games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 33% | Draw 28% | Vasco DA Gama 39%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Vasco DA Gama 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vasco DA Gama are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vasco DA Gama if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Thursday 11 May 2023, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 33% | Draw 28% | Vasco DA Gama 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Coritiba 1.19 / Vasco DA Gama 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.828 / def 1.103 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.970 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Vasco DA Gama (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Vasco DA Gama xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Coritiba vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 23:00 on Thursday 11 May 2023 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Vasco DA Gama?
Coritiba 1 - 1 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is Coritiba vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
Coritiba vs Vasco DA Gama is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 33% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Vasco DA Gama the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Coritiba and Vasco DA Gama will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Vasco DA Gama?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Coritiba and Vasco DA Gama in?
Coritiba (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Coritiba home split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Coritiba's attack rating (0.83) and Vasco DA Gama's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vasco DA Gama's attack (0.97x) against Coritiba's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 42/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasco DA Gama Win
33%
3.06
28%
3.59
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.51
1.33
Vasco DA Gama xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
9%
11.51
12%
8.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.8 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.33 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Vasco DA Gama?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Pre-Season
Vasco DA Gama
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vasco DA Gama won 5-1 on 21 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coritiba have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Vasco DA Gama — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Coritiba
2
Draws
1
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Vasco DA Gama?
From 3 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 0, Vasco DA Gama have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2026, when Coritiba 1-1 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Vasco DA Gama?
Vasco DA Gama have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Coritiba and Vasco DA Gama share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 5, as Coritiba and Vasco DA Gama drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 1.19 xG and Vasco DA Gama 1.33 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.83 / defence 1.10 against Vasco DA Gama attack 0.97 / defence 0.98, drawn from 42/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 33% | Draw 28% | Vasco DA Gama 39%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.