America Mineiro 0-4 Cruzeiro – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cruzeiro at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this America Mineiro vs Cruzeiro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
America Mineiro and Cruzeiro meet at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio in Serie A, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 May 2023 at 22:30 UTC.
Current Form
America Mineiro's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, America Mineiro have posted 5W 2D 3L at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects America Mineiro 1.14 xG and Cruzeiro 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: America Mineiro attack 0.802 / defence 1.232 | Cruzeiro attack 1.067 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.169. Data: 43 America Mineiro games / 5 Cruzeiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: America Mineiro 26% | Draw 30% | Cruzeiro 44%. Fair-value odds: America Mineiro 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Cruzeiro 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cruzeiro are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cruzeiro if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: America Mineiro vs Cruzeiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estádio Raimundo Sampaio • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: America Mineiro 26% | Draw 30% | Cruzeiro 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG America Mineiro 1.14 / Cruzeiro 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: America Mineiro attack 0.802 / def 1.232 | Cruzeiro attack 1.067 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Cruzeiro (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
America Mineiro xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Cruzeiro xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does America Mineiro vs Cruzeiro kick off?
America Mineiro vs Cruzeiro kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What was the final score in America Mineiro vs Cruzeiro?
America Mineiro 0 - 4 Cruzeiro.
Where is America Mineiro vs Cruzeiro being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What competition is America Mineiro vs Cruzeiro part of?
America Mineiro vs Cruzeiro is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win America Mineiro vs Cruzeiro?
Our statistical model gives America Mineiro a 26% chance of winning, Cruzeiro a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cruzeiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in America Mineiro vs Cruzeiro?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both America Mineiro and Cruzeiro will score (BTTS).
Will America Mineiro vs Cruzeiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Cruzeiro?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are America Mineiro and Cruzeiro in?
America Mineiro (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. America Mineiro home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
America Mineiro's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Cruzeiro's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Cruzeiro's attack (1.07x) against America Mineiro's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 43/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cruzeiro Win
26%
3.87
30%
3.30
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
America Mineiro xG
Total xG
2.68
1.54
Cruzeiro xG
3.87
26%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
6%
18.02
14%
7.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.5 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for America Mineiro vs Cruzeiro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are America Mineiro and Cruzeiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for America Mineiro and 1.54 for Cruzeiro, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for America Mineiro vs Cruzeiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
America Mineiro
Pre-Season
Cruzeiro
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
America Mineiro
1
Draws
1
Cruzeiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Cruzeiro?
From 2 meetings on record, America Mineiro have won 0, Cruzeiro have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did America Mineiro and Cruzeiro last play each other?
They last met on 1 October 2023, when Cruzeiro 1-1 America Mineiro.
Who has won more matches between America Mineiro and Cruzeiro?
Cruzeiro have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = America Mineiro home games / Cruzeiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Cruzeiro run riot with a 0-4 hammering of America Mineiro.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cruzeiro beat America Mineiro 0-4 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting America Mineiro 1.14 xG and Cruzeiro 1.54 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. America Mineiro fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Cruzeiro outscored their 1.54 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of America Mineiro attack 0.80 / defence 1.23 against Cruzeiro attack 1.07 / defence 1.01, drawn from 43/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it America Mineiro 26% | Draw 30% | Cruzeiro 44%, with Cruzeiro to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.