Vasco DA Gama 1-0 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gremio at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vasco DA Gama host Gremio at Estádio São Januário in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 August 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vasco DA Gama — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vasco DA Gama, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasco DA Gama's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 6L across 8 games at Estádio São Januário this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Gremio have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gremio away from home this season: 3W 1D 3L from 7 away games — 1.43 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.43 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Gremio — 1.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Vasco DA Gama in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Gremio in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasco DA Gama 50% versus Gremio 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasco DA Gama 38% | Gremio 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 0.89 xG and Gremio 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 0.553 / defence 1.282 | Gremio attack 0.962 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.020. Vasco DA Gama's attack strength of 0.553 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Gremio bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing Vasco DA Gama's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Vasco DA Gama games / 16 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 25% | Draw 32% | Gremio 43%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 4.00 | Draw 3.12 | Gremio 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gremio at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gremio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Vasco DA Gama 25% | Gremio 71%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estádio São Januário • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Aug 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 25% | Draw 32% | Gremio 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Vasco DA Gama 0.89 / Gremio 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 0.553 / def 1.282 | Gremio attack 0.962 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Gremio (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Gremio xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 6 August 2023 at Estádio São Januário.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio?
Vasco DA Gama 1 - 0 Gremio.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Estádio São Januário.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 25% chance of winning, Gremio a 43% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Gremio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Gremio?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Gremio in?
Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Gremio (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Vasco DA Gama's attack at 0.55x the league average against Gremio's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gremio's attack versus Vasco DA Gama's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gremio Win
25%
4.06
32%
3.13
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
2.14
1.26
Gremio xG
4.06
25%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
7%
14.28
18%
5.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 14.7 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.26 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vasco DA Gama's recent record stands at 2W 3D 11L from 16 games, a 0.56 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Vasco DA Gama is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gremio, meanwhile, have gone 9W 3D 4L across 16 games — 1.88 PPG, with W-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gremio by 1.32 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vasco DA Gama heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Vasco DA Gama have managed 1W 0D 6L from 7 games — 0.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gremio's away record stands at 3W 1D 3L across 7 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gremio's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gremio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vasco DA Gama are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 1.62 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gremio in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Blended
Gremio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Gremio in coming into this match?
Vasco DA Gama have gone 2W 3D 11L in their last 16 games (0.56 PPG), while Gremio have gone 9W 3D 4L in their last 16 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasco DA Gama at home or Gremio away?
Gremio's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasco DA Gama at home: 0.43 PPG; Gremio away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vasco DA Gama and Gremio runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Vasco DA Gama's record when hosting Gremio specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Vasco DA Gama
1
Draws
3
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Gremio?
From 7 meetings on record, Vasco DA Gama have won 3, Gremio have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Gremio.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vasco DA Gama see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasco DA Gama 14%, Gremio 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 14% (Vasco DA Gama) and 71% (Gremio).
On the defensive side: Vasco DA Gama have failed to score in 71% of games; Gremio in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasco DA Gama play Gremio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 14% of Vasco DA Gama's recent matches and 71% of Gremio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Vasco DA Gama's recent games and 71% of Gremio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasco DA Gama and Gremio tend to score early?
Vasco DA Gama have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Gremio in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vasco DA Gama defy the odds to beat Gremio 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasco DA Gama beat Gremio 1-0 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 0.89 xG and Gremio 1.26 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gremio landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 0.55 / defence 1.28 against Gremio attack 0.96 / defence 1.21, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 25% | Draw 32% | Gremio 43%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Vasco DA Gama win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 38%, Gremio 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Gremio's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Gremio arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.56. Form was overturned, with Vasco DA Gama winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Gremio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.