Cuiaba 3-0 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cuiaba vs Flamengo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cuiaba and Flamengo meet at Arena Pantanal in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Monday 7 August 2023 at 00:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cuiaba have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cuiaba's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Arena Pantanal this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Arena Pantanal this season.
Flamengo (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Flamengo away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Cuiaba, 1.90 for Flamengo — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Cuiaba register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Flamengo in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Flamengo, who have claimed 3 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with Flamengo winning.
It is worth noting that Flamengo have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Cuiaba half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Flamengo half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 49% versus Flamengo 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cuiaba 33% | Flamengo 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 1.36 xG and Flamengo 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.963 / defence 1.151 | Flamengo attack 1.295 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.004. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.295 — the away xG of 1.50 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Cuiaba games / 55 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 33% | Draw 27% | Flamengo 40%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Flamengo 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Flamengo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cuiaba 70% | Flamengo 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Monday 7 Aug 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 33% | Draw 27% | Flamengo 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Cuiaba 1.36 / Flamengo 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.963 / def 1.151 | Flamengo attack 1.295 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.004 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Flamengo xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Flamengo kick off?
Cuiaba vs Flamengo kicked off at 00:00 on Monday 7 August 2023 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Flamengo?
Cuiaba 3 - 0 Flamengo.
Where is Cuiaba vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Flamengo part of?
Cuiaba vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 33% chance of winning, Flamengo a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Cuiaba and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Flamengo?
Record (4 meetings): Cuiaba 0W | Draws 1 | Flamengo 3W.
What form are Cuiaba and Flamengo in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Flamengo (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cuiaba's attack rating (0.96) and Flamengo's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Flamengo's attack (1.29x) against Cuiaba's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
33%
2.99
27%
3.70
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
2.86
1.50
Flamengo xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
7%
13.36
10%
9.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.7 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Cuiaba and 1.50 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cuiaba's recent record stands at 17W 15D 23L from 55 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Flamengo, meanwhile, have gone 27W 12D 16L across 55 games — 1.69 PPG, with W-D-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cuiaba heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cuiaba have managed 8W 11D 8L from 27 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Flamengo's away record stands at 11W 6D 10L across 27 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Cuiaba are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.64 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Blended
Flamengo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 17W 15D 23L in their last 55 games (1.20 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 27W 12D 16L in their last 55 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.30 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Flamengo in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cuiaba won 3-0 on 7 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cuiaba have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Flamengo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cuiaba
2
Draws
5
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Flamengo?
From 8 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 1, Flamengo have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 20 November 2024, when Cuiaba 1-2 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cuiaba see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 56%, Flamengo 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Cuiaba) and 59% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Cuiaba have failed to score in 26% of games; Flamengo in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Flamengo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Cuiaba's games and 67% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cuiaba vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Cuiaba's recent games and 59% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and Flamengo tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cuiaba run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Flamengo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cuiaba beat Flamengo 3-0 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 1.36 xG and Flamengo 1.50 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Cuiaba beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Flamengo landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Flamengo attack 1.29 / defence 1.08, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 33% | Draw 27% | Flamengo 40%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Cuiaba win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 33%, Flamengo 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Flamengo's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Cuiaba winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cuiaba (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.