Goias 1-1 Gremio – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Goias at 41%, yet in-form Gremio provide a compelling counter-argument — this Goias vs Gremio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Gremio travel to Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro to take on Goias. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 July 2023, 22:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Goias — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Goias, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Goias's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gremio stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gremio's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 3L across 6 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Gremio — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Goias trading profile (15 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Gremio trading profile (15 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Goias 47% versus Gremio 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Goias 47% | Gremio 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Goias 1.44 xG and Gremio 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Goias attack 0.876 / defence 1.241 | Gremio attack 0.978 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.023. Gremio bring a strong defensive rating of 1.248 — this is suppressing Goias's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Goias games / 15 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Goias 41% | Draw 28% | Gremio 31%. Fair-value odds: Goias 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Gremio 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Goias are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gremio (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Goias offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Goias 40% | Gremio 67%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Goias vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jul 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Goias 41% | Draw 28% | Gremio 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Goias 1.44 / Gremio 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Goias attack 0.876 / def 1.241 | Gremio attack 0.978 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Goias (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Goias xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Gremio xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Goias vs Gremio kick off?
Goias vs Gremio kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 30 July 2023 at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro.
What was the final score in Goias vs Gremio?
Goias 1 - 1 Gremio.
Where is Goias vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro.
What competition is Goias vs Gremio part of?
Goias vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Goias vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Goias a 41% chance of winning, Gremio a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Goias the favourite.
Will both teams score in Goias vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Goias and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Goias vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Goias and Gremio?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Goias and Gremio in?
Goias (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Gremio (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Goias's attack rating (0.88) and Gremio's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gremio's attack versus Goias's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Goias Win
41%
2.47
28%
3.56
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Goias xG
Total xG
2.68
1.24
Gremio xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
12%
8.54
7%
13.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.2 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Goias vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Goias and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Goias and 1.24 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Goias vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 15 outings, Goias have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 4W 3D 8L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Goias is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gremio's form line: 9W 2D 4L from 15 games, 1.93 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Gremio are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Goias.
Venue Form
On home soil, Goias have posted 0.83 PPG from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L).
On the road, Gremio have gone 3W 0D 3L from 6 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gremio's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gremio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Goias are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 1.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gremio in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Goias
Blended
Gremio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Goias and Gremio in coming into this match?
Goias have gone 4W 3D 8L in their last 15 games (1.00 PPG), while Gremio have gone 9W 2D 4L in their last 15 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Goias at home or Gremio away?
Gremio's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Goias at home: 0.83 PPG; Gremio away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Goias
1
Draws
1
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Goias and Gremio?
From 2 meetings on record, Goias have won 0, Gremio have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Goias and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2023, when Gremio 2-1 Goias.
Who has won more matches between Goias and Gremio?
Gremio have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Goias are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Goias 50%, Gremio 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Goias and 83% for Gremio. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Goias have failed to score in 50% of games; Gremio in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Goias home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Goias play Gremio?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Goias's games and 67% of Gremio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Goias vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Goias's matches and 83% of Gremio's.
Do Goias and Gremio tend to score early?
Goias have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Gremio in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Goias and Gremio share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro, Regular Season - 17, as Goias and Gremio drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Goias 1.44 xG and Gremio 1.24 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Goias attack 0.88 / defence 1.24 against Gremio attack 0.98 / defence 1.25, drawn from 54/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Goias 41% | Draw 28% | Gremio 31%, with Goias to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Goias 47%, Gremio 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Goias's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Gremio's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Gremio arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Goias (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Gremio (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.