Fluminense 2-1 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Palmeiras fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Palmeiras travel to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to take on Fluminense. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 August 2023, 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Fluminense have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fluminense's home record at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Fluminense are significantly better at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palmeiras stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fluminense 1.50 PPG, Palmeiras 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Fluminense, 0 for Palmeiras and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Fluminense trading profile (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Palmeiras trading profile (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 42% versus Palmeiras 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fluminense 46% | Palmeiras 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.03 xG and Palmeiras 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 1.030 / defence 0.720 | Palmeiras attack 1.271 / defence 0.762. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.020. Palmeiras's defence strength of 0.762 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Palmeiras have an above-average attack strength of 1.271 — the away xG of 0.93 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Fluminense's defence rating of 0.720 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Fluminense games / 55 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 36% | Draw 34% | Palmeiras 30%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Palmeiras 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fluminense at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fluminense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fluminense 40% | Palmeiras 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Aug 2023, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 36% | Draw 34% | Palmeiras 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 41% | xG Fluminense 1.03 / Palmeiras 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 1.030 / def 0.720 | Palmeiras attack 1.271 / def 0.762 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Palmeiras xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Palmeiras kick off?
Fluminense vs Palmeiras kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 6 August 2023 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
Fluminense 2 - 1 Palmeiras.
Where is Fluminense vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Palmeiras part of?
Fluminense vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 36% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Fluminense and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Palmeiras?
Record (3 meetings): Fluminense 1W | Draws 2 | Palmeiras 0W.
What form are Fluminense and Palmeiras in?
Fluminense (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Palmeiras (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fluminense's attack at 1.03x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Fluminense's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
36%
2.81
34%
2.93
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Fluminense xG
Total xG
1.96
0.93
Palmeiras xG
2.81
36%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
14%
7.15
11%
9.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 13.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.93 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Fluminense have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 29W 11D 15L record — L-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palmeiras's form line: 31W 19D 5L from 55 games, 2.04 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-W. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fluminense on 1.78 PPG, Palmeiras on 2.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fluminense have posted 2.14 PPG from 28 outings (18W 6D 4L).
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 13W 13D 2L from 28 away games — 1.86 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Fluminense are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.78 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Palmeiras in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Blended
Palmeiras
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 29W 11D 15L in their last 55 games (1.78 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 31W 19D 5L in their last 55 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Palmeiras away?
Fluminense's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 2.14 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fluminense and Palmeiras runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fluminense's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fluminense
3
Draws
3
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Palmeiras?
From 10 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 4, Palmeiras have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2026, when Palmeiras 2-1 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Palmeiras?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 50%, Palmeiras 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Fluminense) and 43% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Palmeiras in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Fluminense's recent matches and 50% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Fluminense's recent games and 43% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fluminense edge out Palmeiras 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Palmeiras 2-1 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.03 xG and Palmeiras 0.93 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Fluminense beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 1.03 / defence 0.72 against Palmeiras attack 1.27 / defence 0.76, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 36% | Draw 34% | Palmeiras 30%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 46%, Palmeiras 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Palmeiras's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.78 PPG, Palmeiras 2.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock. Palmeiras (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.