Vasco DA Gama 2-1 America Mineiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vasco DA Gama at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vasco DA Gama vs America Mineiro encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio São Januário plays host to Vasco DA Gama versus America Mineiro in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Sunday 12 November 2023 at 21:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vasco DA Gama have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vasco DA Gama have posted 6W 1D 3L at Estádio São Januário — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio São Januário. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
America Mineiro's overall Serie A record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
America Mineiro's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Vasco DA Gama's favour (1.70 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Vasco DA Gama 1W, America Mineiro 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Vasco DA Gama winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Vasco DA Gama half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
America Mineiro half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasco DA Gama 47% versus America Mineiro 72%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasco DA Gama 31% | America Mineiro 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 1.66 xG and America Mineiro 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 0.925 / defence 0.968 | America Mineiro attack 1.117 / defence 1.347. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.095. America Mineiro bring a strong defensive rating of 1.347 — this is suppressing Vasco DA Gama's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Vasco DA Gama games / 71 America Mineiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 48% | Draw 25% | America Mineiro 27%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | America Mineiro 3.70. Vasco DA Gama hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vasco DA Gama at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vasco DA Gama if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vasco DA Gama 30% | America Mineiro 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs America Mineiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estádio São Januário • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 48% | Draw 25% | America Mineiro 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Vasco DA Gama 1.66 / America Mineiro 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 0.925 / def 0.968 | America Mineiro attack 1.117 / def 1.347 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Vasco DA Gama (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
1.19
America Mineiro xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs America Mineiro kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs America Mineiro kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Estádio São Januário.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs America Mineiro?
Vasco DA Gama 2 - 1 America Mineiro.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs America Mineiro being played?
The match is being played at Estádio São Januário.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs America Mineiro part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs America Mineiro is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs America Mineiro?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 48% chance of winning, America Mineiro a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Vasco DA Gama the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs America Mineiro?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and America Mineiro will score (BTTS).
Will Vasco DA Gama vs America Mineiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and America Mineiro?
Record (1 meetings): Vasco DA Gama 1W | Draws 0 | America Mineiro 0W.
What form are Vasco DA Gama and America Mineiro in?
Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. America Mineiro (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Vasco DA Gama's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against America Mineiro's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. Flip it around — America Mineiro's attack (1.12x) against Vasco DA Gama's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 32/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasco DA Gama Win
48%
2.07
25%
4.05
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
2.85
1.19
America Mineiro xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
19%
5.27
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
5%
19.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.4 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs America Mineiro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and America Mineiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.19 for America Mineiro, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs America Mineiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vasco DA Gama come into this having played 32 games, going 10W 7D 15L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, America Mineiro sit at 0.66 PPG from 32 outings (4W 9D 19L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five.
Vasco DA Gama carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of America Mineiro — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Vasco DA Gama's home form reads 7W 2D 7L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, America Mineiro have taken 0.44 points per game from 16 outings (0W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasco DA Gama come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vasco DA Gama are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; America Mineiro are on 1.19 scored and 2.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: America Mineiro in 72%.
Last 32 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
America Mineiro
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasco DA Gama and America Mineiro in coming into this match?
Vasco DA Gama have gone 10W 7D 15L in their last 32 games (1.16 PPG), while America Mineiro have gone 4W 9D 19L in their last 32 (0.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasco DA Gama at home or America Mineiro away?
Vasco DA Gama's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasco DA Gama at home: 1.44 PPG; America Mineiro away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Vasco DA Gama
0
Draws
0
America Mineiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and America Mineiro?
From 2 meetings on record, Vasco DA Gama have won 2, America Mineiro have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and America Mineiro last play each other?
They last met on 12 November 2023, when Vasco DA Gama 2-1 America Mineiro.
Who has won more matches between Vasco DA Gama and America Mineiro?
Vasco DA Gama have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
America Mineiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasco DA Gama 31%, America Mineiro 88% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Vasco DA Gama) and 69% (America Mineiro).
On the defensive side: Vasco DA Gama keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Vasco DA Gama have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / America Mineiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasco DA Gama play America Mineiro?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 31% of Vasco DA Gama's games and 88% of America Mineiro's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vasco DA Gama vs America Mineiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Vasco DA Gama's recent games and 69% of America Mineiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasco DA Gama and America Mineiro tend to score early?
Vasco DA Gama have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, America Mineiro in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vasco DA Gama edge out America Mineiro 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasco DA Gama beat America Mineiro 2-1 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.66 xG and America Mineiro 1.19 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 0.93 / defence 0.97 against America Mineiro attack 1.12 / defence 1.35, drawn from 32/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 48% | Draw 25% | America Mineiro 27%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 31%, America Mineiro 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
America Mineiro's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Vasco DA Gama arrived the stronger side — 1.16 PPG against 0.66. Form held, and they took the win. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.