Vasco DA Gama 1-0 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Botafogo at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vasco DA Gama host Botafogo at Estádio São Januário in Serie A, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 6 November 2023 at 22:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Vasco DA Gama have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vasco DA Gama have posted 6W 1D 3L at Estádio São Januário — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio São Januário. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Botafogo — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Botafogo's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Vasco DA Gama have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Vasco DA Gama's 30% rate and Botafogo's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Vasco DA Gama have won 0, Botafogo 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Jul 2023, ended 0–2 with Botafogo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Vasco DA Gama in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Botafogo in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasco DA Gama 48% versus Botafogo 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Vasco DA Gama 32% | Botafogo 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 0.86 xG and Botafogo 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 0.910 / defence 1.055 | Botafogo attack 0.964 / defence 0.697. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.100. Botafogo's defence strength of 0.697 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 31 Vasco DA Gama games / 68 Botafogo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 28% | Draw 31% | Botafogo 41%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Botafogo 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Botafogo at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vasco DA Gama (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Botafogo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Vasco DA Gama 30% | Botafogo 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estádio São Januário • Kick-off: Monday 6 Nov 2023, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 28% | Draw 31% | Botafogo 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Vasco DA Gama 0.86 / Botafogo 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 0.910 / def 1.055 | Botafogo attack 0.964 / def 0.697 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Botafogo xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo kicked off at 22:00 on Monday 6 November 2023 at Estádio São Januário.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo?
Vasco DA Gama 1 - 0 Botafogo.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio São Januário.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 28% chance of winning, Botafogo a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo will score (BTTS).
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo?
Record (1 meetings): Vasco DA Gama 0W | Draws 0 | Botafogo 1W.
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo in?
Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Botafogo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Vasco DA Gama's attack rating (0.91) and Botafogo's defence rating (0.70), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Botafogo's attack versus Vasco DA Gama's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
28%
3.61
31%
3.21
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
1.98
1.12
Botafogo xG
3.61
28%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
9%
11.04
17%
5.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 15.4 | 8.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.12 for Botafogo, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vasco DA Gama come into this having played 31 games, going 9W 7D 15L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Botafogo sit at 1.90 PPG from 31 outings (18W 5D 8L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-L across their last five.
Botafogo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Vasco DA Gama — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Vasco DA Gama's home form reads 6W 2D 7L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Botafogo have taken 1.60 points per game from 15 outings (7W 3D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Vasco DA Gama are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Botafogo are on 1.55 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Botafogo in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
Botafogo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo in coming into this match?
Vasco DA Gama have gone 9W 7D 15L in their last 31 games (1.10 PPG), while Botafogo have gone 18W 5D 8L in their last 31 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasco DA Gama at home or Botafogo away?
Botafogo's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasco DA Gama at home: 1.33 PPG; Botafogo away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Vasco DA Gama or Botafogo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasco DA Gama have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Botafogo in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Botafogo go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2024, when Botafogo won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vasco DA Gama's record when hosting Botafogo specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Vasco DA Gama
1
Draws
5
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo?
From 7 meetings on record, Vasco DA Gama have won 1, Botafogo have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Vasco DA Gama 1-2 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Botafogo see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Vasco DA Gama 33% BTTS, Botafogo 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Vasco DA Gama) and 40% (Botafogo).
On the defensive side: Vasco DA Gama keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Botafogo in 40%; Vasco DA Gama have failed to score in 40% of games; Botafogo in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasco DA Gama play Botafogo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Vasco DA Gama's recent matches and 33% of Botafogo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Vasco DA Gama's recent games and 40% of Botafogo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo tend to score early?
Vasco DA Gama have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Botafogo in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vasco DA Gama defy the odds to beat Botafogo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasco DA Gama beat Botafogo 1-0 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 0.86 xG and Botafogo 1.12 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Botafogo landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 0.91 / defence 1.05 against Botafogo attack 0.96 / defence 0.70, drawn from 31/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 28% | Draw 31% | Botafogo 41%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Vasco DA Gama win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 32%, Botafogo 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Botafogo's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Vasco DA Gama winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Botafogo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.