Coritiba 1-0 Cruzeiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cruzeiro at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Coritiba face Cruzeiro.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Durival de Britto e Silva plays host to Coritiba versus Cruzeiro in Serie A (matchday 34). Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Coritiba (all games): 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Coritiba's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Cruzeiro have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Cruzeiro's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Coritiba against 1.20 for Cruzeiro. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 16 Jul 2023, ended Coritiba 0–0 Cruzeiro — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Coritiba half-time and goal-timing data (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Cruzeiro half-time and goal-timing data (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coritiba 68% versus Cruzeiro 26%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coritiba 64% | Cruzeiro 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 0.79 xG and Cruzeiro 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.746 / defence 1.316 | Cruzeiro attack 0.853 / defence 0.801. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.097. Coritiba's attack rating of 0.746 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. Coritiba's defence rating of 1.316 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cruzeiro's projected output up. Data: built from Coritiba's last 71 games and Cruzeiro's last 31.
Result probabilities: Coritiba 23% | Draw 31% | Cruzeiro 46%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 4.27 | Draw 3.26 | Cruzeiro 2.18. Cruzeiro hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cruzeiro as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cruzeiro if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 67% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Coritiba 40% (last 10 home games) | Cruzeiro 10% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Cruzeiro | Competition: Serie A, matchday 34 | Venue: Estádio Durival de Britto e Silva • Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 23% | Draw 31% | Cruzeiro 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Coritiba 0.79 / Cruzeiro 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.746 / def 1.316 | Cruzeiro attack 0.853 / def 0.801 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Cruzeiro (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Cruzeiro xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Coritiba vs Cruzeiro FAQs
What time does Coritiba vs Cruzeiro kick off?
Coritiba vs Cruzeiro kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Estádio Durival de Britto e Silva.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Cruzeiro?
Coritiba 1 - 0 Cruzeiro.
Where is Coritiba vs Cruzeiro being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Durival de Britto e Silva.
What competition is Coritiba vs Cruzeiro part of?
Coritiba vs Cruzeiro is a Serie A fixture (matchday 34) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Cruzeiro?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 23% chance of winning, Cruzeiro a 46% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cruzeiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Cruzeiro?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Coritiba and Cruzeiro will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Coritiba vs Cruzeiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Coritiba's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Cruzeiro's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.79. Flip it around — Cruzeiro's attack (0.85x) against Coritiba's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from Coritiba's last 71 games and Cruzeiro's last 31 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 14.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.6%), 0-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cruzeiro Win
23%
4.27
31%
3.26
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.03
1.23
Cruzeiro xG
4.27
23%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
7%
14.65
21%
4.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 16.2 | 10.0 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Coritiba vs Cruzeiro Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Cruzeiro?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Cruzeiro expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.23 for Cruzeiro, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Cruzeiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Coritiba come into this having played 31 games, going 7W 5D 19L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Cruzeiro sit at 1.19 PPG from 31 outings (9W 10D 12L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.84 PPG for Coritiba against 1.19 for Cruzeiro. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Coritiba's home form reads 3W 3D 9L across their last 15 home games, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Cruzeiro have taken 1.33 points per game from their last 15 away games (5W 5D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cruzeiro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Coritiba are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; Cruzeiro are on 0.94 scored and 0.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coritiba have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Cruzeiro in 26%.
Defensively: Cruzeiro in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Current Season
Cruzeiro
Current Season
Coritiba (Home) vs Cruzeiro (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Coritiba
Current Season
Cruzeiro
Current Season
❓ Coritiba vs Cruzeiro Form FAQs
What form are Coritiba and Cruzeiro in coming into this match?
Coritiba have gone 7W 5D 19L in their last 31 games (0.84 PPG), while Cruzeiro have gone 9W 10D 12L in their last 31 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coritiba at home or Cruzeiro away?
Cruzeiro's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coritiba at home: 0.80 PPG; Cruzeiro away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Coritiba or Cruzeiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coritiba have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Cruzeiro in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 31 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coritiba have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cruzeiro — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Coritiba
1
Draws
1
Cruzeiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Coritiba vs Cruzeiro H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Cruzeiro?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Coritiba have won 2, Cruzeiro have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Cruzeiro last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 July 2026: Coritiba 0-1 Cruzeiro.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Cruzeiro?
Coritiba have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cruzeiro see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coritiba 47%, Cruzeiro 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Coritiba) and 47% (Cruzeiro).
On the defensive side: Cruzeiro in 47%; Coritiba have failed to score in 40% of games; Cruzeiro in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Cruzeiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Coritiba vs Cruzeiro Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Coritiba and Cruzeiro matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Coritiba's recent matches and 27% of Cruzeiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Coritiba and Cruzeiro matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Coritiba's recent games and 47% of Cruzeiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coritiba and Cruzeiro matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Coritiba's recent matches and 53% of Cruzeiro's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Coritiba defy the odds to beat Cruzeiro 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coritiba beat Cruzeiro 1-0 at Estádio Durival de Britto e Silva, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 0.79 xG and Cruzeiro 1.23 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cruzeiro landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.75 / defence 1.32 against Cruzeiro attack 0.85 / defence 0.80, drawn from 71/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 23% | Draw 31% | Cruzeiro 46%, with Cruzeiro to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Coritiba win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coritiba 64%, Cruzeiro 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coritiba's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Cruzeiro's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coritiba 0.84 PPG, Cruzeiro 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coritiba win broke the near-deadlock. Coritiba (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.