Coritiba 1-0 Cruzeiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cruzeiro at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coritiba vs Cruzeiro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Durival de Britto e Silva plays host to Coritiba versus Cruzeiro in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Coritiba (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Coritiba's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 games at Estádio Durival de Britto e Silva this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Cruzeiro have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Cruzeiro's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Coritiba against 1.20 for Cruzeiro. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Coritiba lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Jul 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Coritiba half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Cruzeiro half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coritiba 68% versus Cruzeiro 26%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coritiba 64% | Cruzeiro 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 0.79 xG and Cruzeiro 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.746 / defence 1.316 | Cruzeiro attack 0.853 / defence 0.801. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.097. Coritiba's attack strength of 0.746 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 71 Coritiba games / 31 Cruzeiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 23% | Draw 31% | Cruzeiro 46%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 4.35 | Draw 3.23 | Cruzeiro 2.17. Cruzeiro hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cruzeiro as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cruzeiro if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Coritiba 40% | Cruzeiro 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Cruzeiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estádio Durival de Britto e Silva • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 23% | Draw 31% | Cruzeiro 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Coritiba 0.79 / Cruzeiro 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.746 / def 1.316 | Cruzeiro attack 0.853 / def 0.801 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Cruzeiro (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Cruzeiro xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Cruzeiro kick off?
Coritiba vs Cruzeiro kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Estádio Durival de Britto e Silva.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Cruzeiro?
Coritiba 1 - 0 Cruzeiro.
Where is Coritiba vs Cruzeiro being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Durival de Britto e Silva.
What competition is Coritiba vs Cruzeiro part of?
Coritiba vs Cruzeiro is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Cruzeiro?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 23% chance of winning, Cruzeiro a 46% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cruzeiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Cruzeiro?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Coritiba and Cruzeiro will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Cruzeiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Cruzeiro?
Record (1 meetings): Coritiba 0W | Draws 1 | Cruzeiro 0W.
What form are Coritiba and Cruzeiro in?
Coritiba (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Cruzeiro (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Coritiba's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Cruzeiro's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.79. Flip it around — Cruzeiro's attack (0.85x) against Coritiba's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 71/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 14.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.6%), 0-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cruzeiro Win
23%
4.27
31%
3.26
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.03
1.23
Cruzeiro xG
4.27
23%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
7%
14.65
21%
4.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 16.2 | 10.0 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Cruzeiro?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Cruzeiro expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.23 for Cruzeiro, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Cruzeiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Coritiba come into this having played 31 games, going 7W 5D 19L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Cruzeiro sit at 1.19 PPG from 31 outings (9W 10D 12L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.84 PPG for Coritiba against 1.19 for Cruzeiro. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Coritiba's home form reads 3W 3D 9L across 15 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Cruzeiro have taken 1.33 points per game from 15 outings (5W 5D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cruzeiro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Coritiba are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; Cruzeiro are on 0.94 scored and 0.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coritiba have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Cruzeiro in 26%.
Defensively: Cruzeiro in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Current Season
Cruzeiro
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coritiba and Cruzeiro in coming into this match?
Coritiba have gone 7W 5D 19L in their last 31 games (0.84 PPG), while Cruzeiro have gone 9W 10D 12L in their last 31 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coritiba at home or Cruzeiro away?
Cruzeiro's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coritiba at home: 0.80 PPG; Cruzeiro away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Coritiba or Cruzeiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coritiba have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Cruzeiro in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coritiba have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cruzeiro — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Coritiba
1
Draws
1
Cruzeiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Cruzeiro?
From 4 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 2, Cruzeiro have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Cruzeiro last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Coritiba 0-1 Cruzeiro.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Cruzeiro?
Coritiba have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Cruzeiro see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coritiba 47%, Cruzeiro 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Coritiba) and 47% (Cruzeiro).
On the defensive side: Cruzeiro in 47%; Coritiba have failed to score in 40% of games; Cruzeiro in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Cruzeiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coritiba play Cruzeiro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Coritiba's recent matches and 27% of Cruzeiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coritiba vs Cruzeiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Coritiba's recent games and 47% of Cruzeiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coritiba and Cruzeiro tend to score early?
Coritiba have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Cruzeiro in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Coritiba defy the odds to beat Cruzeiro 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coritiba beat Cruzeiro 1-0 at Estádio Durival de Britto e Silva, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 0.79 xG and Cruzeiro 1.23 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cruzeiro landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.75 / defence 1.32 against Cruzeiro attack 0.85 / defence 0.80, drawn from 71/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 23% | Draw 31% | Cruzeiro 46%, with Cruzeiro to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Coritiba win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coritiba 64%, Cruzeiro 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coritiba's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Cruzeiro's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coritiba 0.84 PPG, Cruzeiro 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coritiba win broke the near-deadlock. Coritiba (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.