Fluminense 2-1 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs RB Bragantino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
RB Bragantino make the trip to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to face Fluminense in Serie A, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 September 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fluminense have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fluminense at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
RB Bragantino's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, RB Bragantino have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Fluminense against 1.10 for RB Bragantino. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Fluminense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games).
RB Bragantino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fluminense 55% and RB Bragantino 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fluminense 35% | RB Bragantino 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 0.90 xG and RB Bragantino 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 0.993 / defence 1.126 | RB Bragantino attack 1.043 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 0.858 / away 1.038. Data: 21 Fluminense games / 20 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 25% | Draw 33% | RB Bragantino 41%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 4.00 | Draw 3.03 | RB Bragantino 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Bragantino are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Fluminense 50% | RB Bragantino 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 25% | Draw 33% | RB Bragantino 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Fluminense 0.90 / RB Bragantino 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 0.993 / def 1.126 | RB Bragantino attack 1.043 / def 1.055 | league avg home 0.858 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
1.22
RB Bragantino xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Fluminense vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs RB Bragantino?
Fluminense 2 - 1 RB Bragantino.
Where is Fluminense vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs RB Bragantino part of?
Fluminense vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 25% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 41% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Fluminense and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and RB Bragantino?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fluminense and RB Bragantino in?
Fluminense (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. RB Bragantino (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fluminense's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against RB Bragantino's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. Flip it around — RB Bragantino's attack (1.04x) against Fluminense's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 21/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
25%
3.97
33%
3.00
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.12
1.22
RB Bragantino xG
3.97
25%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
7%
13.44
17%
5.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 14.7 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Fluminense and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Fluminense and 1.22 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fluminense's recent record stands at 7W 7D 6L from 20 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RB Bragantino, meanwhile, have gone 8W 9D 3L across 20 games — 1.65 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for RB Bragantino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Fluminense against 1.65 for RB Bragantino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fluminense have managed 4W 4D 2L from 10 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RB Bragantino's away record stands at 6W 3D 1L across 10 trips, a 2.10 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.65 PPG overall record — RB Bragantino travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fluminense are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.55 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RB Bragantino in 65%.
Last 20 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Blended
RB Bragantino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 7W 7D 6L in their last 20 games (1.40 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 8W 9D 3L in their last 20 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or RB Bragantino away?
RB Bragantino's away record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 1.60 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 2.10 PPG.
Have Fluminense or RB Bragantino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, RB Bragantino in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fluminense have gone 4W 2D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against RB Bragantino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Fluminense
2
Draws
2
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and RB Bragantino?
From 10 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 6, RB Bragantino have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Fluminense 1-1 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and RB Bragantino?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 50%, RB Bragantino 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Fluminense and 50% for RB Bragantino.
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; RB Bragantino in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play RB Bragantino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Fluminense's recent matches and 50% of RB Bragantino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Fluminense's recent games and 50% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fluminense defy the odds to beat RB Bragantino 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat RB Bragantino 2-1 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 0.90 xG and RB Bragantino 1.22 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Fluminense beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.99 / defence 1.13 against RB Bragantino attack 1.04 / defence 1.05, drawn from 21/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 25% | Draw 33% | RB Bragantino 41%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Fluminense win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 35%, RB Bragantino 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.40 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock. Fluminense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.