Sport Recife 0-0 Chapecoense-sc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chapecoense-sc at 38%, yet in-form Sport Recife provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sport Recife vs Chapecoense-sc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 18 as Sport Recife welcome Chapecoense-sc to Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 August 2021 at 21:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sport Recife stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Sport Recife, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sport Recife have posted 1W 3D 4L at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho — 0.75 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.25 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho. At home, both teams have scored in only 12% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Chapecoense-sc — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chapecoense-sc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chapecoense-sc away from home this season: 0W 4D 5L from 9 away games — 0.44 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 89% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Sport Recife carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.00 vs 0.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Sport Recife trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 59% of games.
Chapecoense-sc trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sport Recife 24% versus Chapecoense-sc 65%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sport Recife 18% | Chapecoense-sc 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sport Recife 0.70 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sport Recife attack 0.534 / defence 0.927 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.879 / defence 1.500. League average goals — home 0.877 / away 1.088. Sport Recife's attack strength of 0.534 is below the league average — the 0.70 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Chapecoense-sc bring a strong defensive rating of 1.500 — this is suppressing Sport Recife's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Sport Recife games / 17 Chapecoense-sc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sport Recife 27% | Draw 35% | Chapecoense-sc 38%. Fair-value odds: Sport Recife 3.70 | Draw 2.86 | Chapecoense-sc 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.59. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.59 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Sport Recife's lower xG of 0.70 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chapecoense-sc at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sport Recife (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chapecoense-sc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 21% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 30%. Form rates are neutral: Sport Recife 12% | Chapecoense-sc 89%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sport Recife vs Chapecoense-sc | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sport Recife 27% | Draw 35% | Chapecoense-sc 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 30% | xG Sport Recife 0.70 / Chapecoense-sc 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Sport Recife attack 0.534 / def 0.927 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.879 / def 1.500 | league avg home 0.877 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Chapecoense-sc (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
Sport Recife xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Chapecoense-sc xG
30%
BTTS
47%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sport Recife vs Chapecoense-sc kick off?
Sport Recife vs Chapecoense-sc kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What was the final score in Sport Recife vs Chapecoense-sc?
Sport Recife 0 - 0 Chapecoense-sc.
Where is Sport Recife vs Chapecoense-sc being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What competition is Sport Recife vs Chapecoense-sc part of?
Sport Recife vs Chapecoense-sc is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sport Recife vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our statistical model gives Sport Recife a 27% chance of winning, Chapecoense-sc a 38% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Chapecoense-sc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Sport Recife and Chapecoense-sc will score (BTTS).
Will Sport Recife vs Chapecoense-sc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Chapecoense-sc?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sport Recife and Chapecoense-sc in?
Sport Recife (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Chapecoense-sc (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sport Recife's attack at 0.53x the league average against Chapecoense-sc's defence at 1.50x — combine the two and it projects 0.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chapecoense-sc's attack versus Sport Recife's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 22.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (16.4%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chapecoense-sc Win
27%
3.69
35%
2.84
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.1%
Away win
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
Sport Recife xG
Total xG
1.59
0.89
Chapecoense-sc xG
3.69
27%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.37
70%
BTTS No
1.42
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
50%
2.02
Win to Nil
11%
8.94
19%
5.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.4 | 18.1 | 8.0 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.7 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sport Recife vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.1%.
How many goals are Sport Recife and Chapecoense-sc expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Sport Recife and 0.89 for Chapecoense-sc, a combined total of 1.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Sport Recife vs Chapecoense-sc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sport Recife's recent record stands at 3W 6D 8L from 17 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Sport Recife is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chapecoense-sc, meanwhile, have gone 0W 6D 11L across 17 games — 0.35 PPG, with L-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Chapecoense-sc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sport Recife by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chapecoense-sc heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sport Recife have managed 1W 3D 4L from 8 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chapecoense-sc's away record stands at 0W 4D 4L across 8 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Sport Recife are averaging 0.47 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Chapecoense-sc are on 0.82 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sport Recife have seen both teams score in 24% of their recent games; Chapecoense-sc in 65%.
Defensively: Sport Recife have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sport Recife
Blended
Chapecoense-sc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sport Recife and Chapecoense-sc in coming into this match?
Sport Recife have gone 3W 6D 8L in their last 17 games (0.88 PPG), while Chapecoense-sc have gone 0W 6D 11L in their last 17 (0.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sport Recife at home or Chapecoense-sc away?
Sport Recife's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sport Recife at home: 0.75 PPG; Chapecoense-sc away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Sport Recife or Chapecoense-sc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sport Recife have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Chapecoense-sc in 6%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sport Recife and Chapecoense-sc runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sport Recife
1
Draws
0
Chapecoense-sc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Chapecoense-sc?
From 2 meetings on record, Sport Recife have won 1, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sport Recife and Chapecoense-sc last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2021, when Chapecoense-sc 0-1 Sport Recife.
Who has won more matches between Sport Recife and Chapecoense-sc?
Sport Recife have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sport Recife are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Chapecoense-sc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sport Recife 12%, Chapecoense-sc 88% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 12% for Sport Recife and 50% for Chapecoense-sc.
On the defensive side: Sport Recife keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sport Recife have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sport Recife home games / Chapecoense-sc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sport Recife play Chapecoense-sc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 12% of Sport Recife's recent matches and 88% of Chapecoense-sc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sport Recife vs Chapecoense-sc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Sport Recife's recent games and 50% of Chapecoense-sc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sport Recife and Chapecoense-sc tend to score early?
Sport Recife have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Chapecoense-sc in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sport Recife's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Regular Season - 18, as Sport Recife and Chapecoense-sc drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 0.70 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.89 xG, a combined 1.59. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Chapecoense-sc landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.53 / defence 0.93 against Chapecoense-sc attack 0.88 / defence 1.50, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 27% | Draw 35% | Chapecoense-sc 38%, with Chapecoense-sc to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 47% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sport Recife 18%, Chapecoense-sc 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sport Recife's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 59% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chapecoense-sc's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sport Recife arrived the stronger side — 0.88 PPG against 0.35. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Chapecoense-sc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.