Chapecoense-sc 1-2 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fluminense at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chapecoense-sc and Fluminense meet at Arena Condá in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 8 September 2021 at 01:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chapecoense-sc have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chapecoense-sc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chapecoense-sc at Arena Condá this season: 0W 2D 6L from 8 home games — 0.25 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game.
Fluminense (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fluminense's away record: 2W 3D 4L from 9 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game.
Fluminense arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Chapecoense-sc half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Fluminense half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chapecoense-sc 61% versus Fluminense 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chapecoense-sc 44% | Fluminense 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chapecoense-sc 0.83 xG and Fluminense 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.700 / defence 1.426 | Fluminense attack 0.802 / defence 1.357. League average goals — home 0.876 / away 1.064. Chapecoense-sc's attack strength of 0.700 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fluminense bring a strong defensive rating of 1.357 — this is suppressing Chapecoense-sc's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Chapecoense-sc games / 18 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 24% | Draw 32% | Fluminense 44%. Fair-value odds: Chapecoense-sc 4.17 | Draw 3.12 | Fluminense 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fluminense at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fluminense if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Chapecoense-sc 38% | Fluminense 44% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Arena Condá • Kick-off: Wednesday 8 Sep 2021, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 24% | Draw 32% | Fluminense 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Chapecoense-sc 0.83 / Fluminense 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.700 / def 1.426 | Fluminense attack 0.802 / def 1.357 | league avg home 0.876 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Chapecoense-sc xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Fluminense xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense kick off?
Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense kicked off at 01:30 on Wednesday 8 September 2021 at Arena Condá.
What was the final score in Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense?
Chapecoense-sc 1 - 2 Fluminense.
Where is Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Arena Condá.
What competition is Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense part of?
Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Chapecoense-sc a 24% chance of winning, Fluminense a 44% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Chapecoense-sc and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Fluminense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chapecoense-sc and Fluminense in?
Chapecoense-sc (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Fluminense (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Chapecoense-sc's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Fluminense's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. Flip it around — Fluminense's attack (0.80x) against Chapecoense-sc's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
24%
4.17
32%
3.10
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Chapecoense-sc xG
Total xG
2.05
1.22
Fluminense xG
4.17
24%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
44%
2.30
Win to Nil
7%
14.08
19%
5.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 15.7 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Chapecoense-sc and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Chapecoense-sc and 1.22 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chapecoense-sc's recent record stands at 0W 7D 11L from 18 games, a 0.39 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Chapecoense-sc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fluminense, meanwhile, have gone 5W 7D 6L across 18 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fluminense by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chapecoense-sc heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Chapecoense-sc have managed 0W 2D 6L from 8 games — 0.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fluminense's away record stands at 2W 2D 4L across 8 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Chapecoense-sc are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 0.89 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chapecoense-sc have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chapecoense-sc
Blended
Fluminense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chapecoense-sc and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Chapecoense-sc have gone 0W 7D 11L in their last 18 games (0.39 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 5W 7D 6L in their last 18 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chapecoense-sc at home or Fluminense away?
Fluminense's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chapecoense-sc at home: 0.25 PPG; Fluminense away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Chapecoense-sc or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chapecoense-sc have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Fluminense in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Fluminense have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fluminense won 3-0 on 10 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Chapecoense-sc
0
Draws
3
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Fluminense?
From 3 meetings on record, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, Fluminense have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chapecoense-sc and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Fluminense 2-1 Chapecoense-sc.
Who has won more matches between Chapecoense-sc and Fluminense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chapecoense-sc see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chapecoense-sc 38%, Fluminense 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Chapecoense-sc) and 38% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Chapecoense-sc have failed to score in 62% of games; Fluminense in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chapecoense-sc home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chapecoense-sc play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Chapecoense-sc's recent matches and 50% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Chapecoense-sc's recent games and 38% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Fluminense edge out Chapecoense-sc 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Chapecoense-sc 1-2 at Arena Condá, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chapecoense-sc 0.83 xG and Fluminense 1.22 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chapecoense-sc attack 0.70 / defence 1.43 against Fluminense attack 0.80 / defence 1.36, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chapecoense-sc 24% | Draw 32% | Fluminense 44%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chapecoense-sc 44%, Fluminense 22%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chapecoense-sc's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Fluminense's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fluminense arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.39. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fluminense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.