Sao Paulo 1-0 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sao Paulo at 38%, yet in-form Flamengo provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sao Paulo vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sao Paulo host Flamengo at MorumBIS in Serie A (matchday 21). Kick-off is Sunday 4 August 2024 at 02:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sao Paulo stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Sao Paulo have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Flamengo — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Flamengo's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Flamengo — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Sao Paulo, 3 for Flamengo and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Apr 2024, ended Sao Paulo 1–2 Flamengo — a Flamengo win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sao Paulo in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Flamengo in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sao Paulo 47% versus Flamengo 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sao Paulo 47% | Flamengo 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sao Paulo 1.32 xG and Flamengo 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sao Paulo attack 1.101 / defence 0.827 | Flamengo attack 1.456 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.054. Flamengo have an above-average attack rating of 1.456, which lifts their away xG to 1.27. Data: built from Sao Paulo's last 58 games and Flamengo's last 57.
Result probabilities: Sao Paulo 38% | Draw 26% | Flamengo 36%. Fair-value odds: Sao Paulo 2.63 | Draw 3.78 | Flamengo 2.81. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sao Paulo are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Flamengo (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sao Paulo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sao Paulo 50% (last 10 home games) | Flamengo 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sao Paulo vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, matchday 21 | Venue: MorumBIS • Kick-off: Sunday 4 August 2024 at 02:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sao Paulo 38% | Draw 26% | Flamengo 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Sao Paulo 1.32 / Flamengo 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Sao Paulo attack 1.101 / def 0.827 | Flamengo attack 1.456 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Sao Paulo (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Sao Paulo xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Flamengo xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sao Paulo vs Flamengo FAQs
What time does Sao Paulo vs Flamengo kick off?
Sao Paulo vs Flamengo kicked off at 02:30 UK time on Sunday 4 August 2024 at MorumBIS.
What was the final score in Sao Paulo vs Flamengo?
Sao Paulo 1 - 0 Flamengo.
Where is Sao Paulo vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at MorumBIS.
What competition is Sao Paulo vs Flamengo part of?
Sao Paulo vs Flamengo is a Serie A fixture (matchday 21) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sao Paulo vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Sao Paulo a 38% chance of winning, Flamengo a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sao Paulo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sao Paulo and Flamengo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sao Paulo vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sao Paulo's attack rating (1.10) and Flamengo's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Sao Paulo's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sao Paulo's last 58 games and Flamengo's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sao Paulo Win
38%
2.63
26%
3.78
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Sao Paulo xG
Total xG
2.59
1.27
Flamengo xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
11%
9.37
9%
10.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sao Paulo vs Flamengo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sao Paulo vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Sao Paulo and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 1.27 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Sao Paulo vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sao Paulo come into this having played 57 games, going 23W 16D 18L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L.
On the other side, Flamengo sit at 1.86 PPG from 57 outings (31W 13D 13L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sao Paulo on 1.49 PPG, Flamengo on 1.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sao Paulo's home form reads 18W 5D 5L across their last 28 home games, a 2.11 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — Sao Paulo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Flamengo have taken 1.75 points per game from their last 28 away games (14W 7D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Sao Paulo are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.58 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Sao Paulo have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sao Paulo
Blended
Flamengo
Blended
Sao Paulo (Home) vs Flamengo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sao Paulo
Blended
Flamengo
Blended
❓ Sao Paulo vs Flamengo Form FAQs
What form are Sao Paulo and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Sao Paulo have gone 23W 16D 18L in their last 57 games (1.49 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 31W 13D 13L in their last 57 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sao Paulo at home or Flamengo away?
Sao Paulo's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sao Paulo at home: 2.11 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Sao Paulo or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sao Paulo have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Flamengo in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 26 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sao Paulo's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sao Paulo
3
Draws
4
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Sao Paulo vs Flamengo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Flamengo?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sao Paulo have won 3, Flamengo have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sao Paulo and Flamengo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 July 2026: Flamengo 1-1 Sao Paulo.
Who has won more matches between Sao Paulo and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sao Paulo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sao Paulo 43%, Flamengo 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Sao Paulo) and 61% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Sao Paulo keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sao Paulo home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sao Paulo vs Flamengo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sao Paulo and Flamengo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Sao Paulo's recent matches and 64% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sao Paulo and Flamengo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Sao Paulo's recent games and 61% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sao Paulo and Flamengo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Sao Paulo's recent matches and 71% of Flamengo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sao Paulo edge out Flamengo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sao Paulo beat Flamengo 1-0 at MorumBIS, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sao Paulo 1.32 xG and Flamengo 1.27 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Flamengo landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sao Paulo attack 1.10 / defence 0.83 against Flamengo attack 1.46 / defence 0.90, drawn from 58/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sao Paulo 38% | Draw 26% | Flamengo 36%, with Sao Paulo to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sao Paulo 47%, Flamengo 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sao Paulo's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Flamengo's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sao Paulo 1.49 PPG, Flamengo 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sao Paulo win broke the near-deadlock. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.