Cruzeiro 1-2 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cruzeiro at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cruzeiro vs Fortaleza EC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cruzeiro host Fortaleza EC at Estádio Kleber José de Andrade in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 6 August 2024 at 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Cruzeiro have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cruzeiro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cruzeiro's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Estádio Kleber José de Andrade this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Cruzeiro are significantly better at Estádio Kleber José de Andrade than their overall form suggests.
Fortaleza EC — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fortaleza EC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortaleza EC away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cruzeiro at 1.80 PPG versus Fortaleza EC's 2.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cruzeiro register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Fortaleza EC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Cruzeiro have won 1, Fortaleza EC 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Cruzeiro in-play tendencies (57 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Fortaleza EC in-play tendencies (57 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cruzeiro 32% versus Fortaleza EC 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cruzeiro 35% | Fortaleza EC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cruzeiro 1.94 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cruzeiro attack 1.371 / defence 0.764 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.822 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.046. Cruzeiro carry an above-average attack strength of 1.371 — their λ of 1.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Cruzeiro's defence rating of 0.764 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Cruzeiro games / 57 Fortaleza EC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cruzeiro 68% | Draw 20% | Fortaleza EC 12%. Fair-value odds: Cruzeiro 1.47 | Draw 5.00 | Fortaleza EC 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Cruzeiro (68%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cruzeiro at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. This conflicts with form data: Cruzeiro 60% | Fortaleza EC 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cruzeiro vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estádio Kleber José de Andrade • Kick-off: Tuesday 6 Aug 2024, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cruzeiro 68% | Draw 20% | Fortaleza EC 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 41% | xG Cruzeiro 1.94 / Fortaleza EC 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Cruzeiro attack 1.371 / def 0.764 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.822 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.311 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Cruzeiro (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Cruzeiro xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Fortaleza EC xG
41%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cruzeiro vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
Cruzeiro vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 01:00 on Tuesday 6 August 2024 at Estádio Kleber José de Andrade.
What was the final score in Cruzeiro vs Fortaleza EC?
Cruzeiro 1 - 2 Fortaleza EC.
Where is Cruzeiro vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Kleber José de Andrade.
What competition is Cruzeiro vs Fortaleza EC part of?
Cruzeiro vs Fortaleza EC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cruzeiro vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives Cruzeiro a 68% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 12% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Cruzeiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Cruzeiro and Fortaleza EC will score (BTTS).
Will Cruzeiro vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Fortaleza EC?
Record (3 meetings): Cruzeiro 1W | Draws 1 | Fortaleza EC 1W.
What form are Cruzeiro and Fortaleza EC in?
Cruzeiro (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Fortaleza EC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cruzeiro's attack rating (1.37) and Fortaleza EC's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fortaleza EC's attack versus Cruzeiro's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 1-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cruzeiro Win
68%
1.47
20%
4.90
12%
8.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.0%
Home win
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Cruzeiro xG
Total xG
2.60
0.66
Fortaleza EC xG
1.47
68%
Home win
4.90
20%
Draw
8.55
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
14%
6.98
Win to Nil
35%
2.84
2%
59.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 9.5 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.0 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cruzeiro vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Cruzeiro and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Cruzeiro and 0.66 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Cruzeiro vs Fortaleza EC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Cruzeiro have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 22W 16D 19L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cruzeiro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortaleza EC's form line: 25W 15D 17L from 57 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Fortaleza EC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cruzeiro on 1.44 PPG, Fortaleza EC on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cruzeiro have posted 1.63 PPG from 27 outings (12W 8D 7L).
On the road, Fortaleza EC have gone 8W 6D 13L from 27 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fortaleza EC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cruzeiro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cruzeiro are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Fortaleza EC are on 1.21 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cruzeiro
Blended
Fortaleza EC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cruzeiro and Fortaleza EC in coming into this match?
Cruzeiro have gone 22W 16D 19L in their last 57 games (1.44 PPG), while Fortaleza EC have gone 25W 15D 17L in their last 57 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cruzeiro at home or Fortaleza EC away?
Cruzeiro's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cruzeiro at home: 1.63 PPG; Fortaleza EC away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Cruzeiro or Fortaleza EC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cruzeiro have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Fortaleza EC in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Cruzeiro go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Cruzeiro's record when hosting Fortaleza EC specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cruzeiro
1
Draws
2
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cruzeiro and Fortaleza EC?
From 6 meetings on record, Cruzeiro have won 3, Fortaleza EC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cruzeiro and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2025, when Cruzeiro 1-0 Fortaleza EC.
Who has won more matches between Cruzeiro and Fortaleza EC?
Cruzeiro have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cruzeiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Fortaleza EC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cruzeiro 41%, Fortaleza EC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Cruzeiro) and 41% (Fortaleza EC).
On the defensive side: Cruzeiro keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Cruzeiro have failed to score in 33% of games; Fortaleza EC in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cruzeiro home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cruzeiro play Fortaleza EC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Cruzeiro's recent matches and 48% of Fortaleza EC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cruzeiro vs Fortaleza EC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cruzeiro's recent games and 41% of Fortaleza EC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cruzeiro and Fortaleza EC tend to score early?
Cruzeiro have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Fortaleza EC in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fortaleza EC defy the odds to beat Cruzeiro 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC beat Cruzeiro 1-2 at Estádio Kleber José de Andrade, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cruzeiro 1.94 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.66 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cruzeiro fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Fortaleza EC outscored their 0.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cruzeiro attack 1.37 / defence 0.76 against Fortaleza EC attack 0.82 / defence 1.08, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cruzeiro 68% | Draw 20% | Fortaleza EC 12%, with Cruzeiro to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a Fortaleza EC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cruzeiro 35%, Fortaleza EC 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cruzeiro's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cruzeiro 1.44 PPG, Fortaleza EC 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortaleza EC win broke the near-deadlock. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.