Flamengo 1-1 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Flamengo vs Palmeiras encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Palmeiras make the trip to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to face Flamengo in Serie A, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 August 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Flamengo (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Flamengo's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Palmeiras's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palmeiras away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Flamengo. A 0.50 PPG lead over Palmeiras (1.90 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Flamengo lead 2W to 0W over the last 6 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Flamengo — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Palmeiras — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 55% versus Palmeiras 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 53% | Palmeiras 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.31 xG and Palmeiras 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.107 / defence 0.965 | Palmeiras attack 1.047 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.053. Data: 58 Flamengo games / 59 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 42% | Draw 28% | Palmeiras 30%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Palmeiras 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Flamengo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Flamengo 70% | Palmeiras 30%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 42% | Draw 28% | Palmeiras 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Flamengo 1.31 / Palmeiras 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.107 / def 0.965 | Palmeiras attack 1.047 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Palmeiras xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Palmeiras kick off?
Flamengo vs Palmeiras kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Palmeiras?
Flamengo 1 - 1 Palmeiras.
Where is Flamengo vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Palmeiras part of?
Flamengo vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 42% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Flamengo and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Palmeiras?
Record (6 meetings): Flamengo 2W | Draws 4 | Palmeiras 0W.
What form are Flamengo and Palmeiras in?
Flamengo (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Palmeiras (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 1.11x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Palmeiras's attack (1.05x) against Flamengo's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 58/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
42%
2.38
28%
3.59
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.37
1.06
Palmeiras xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
8%
12.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Flamengo and 1.06 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Flamengo come into this having played 58 games, going 31W 13D 14L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Palmeiras sit at 1.79 PPG from 58 outings (30W 14D 14L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.83 PPG for Flamengo against 1.79 for Palmeiras. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Flamengo's home form reads 17W 6D 6L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.97 PPG return.
Away from home, Palmeiras have taken 1.41 points per game from 29 outings (10W 11D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Flamengo are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.55 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Blended
Palmeiras
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 31W 13D 14L in their last 58 games (1.83 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 30W 14D 14L in their last 58 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Palmeiras away?
Flamengo's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.97 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Flamengo won 3-0 on 9 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Flamengo have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Palmeiras — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Flamengo
5
Draws
1
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Palmeiras?
From 10 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 4, Palmeiras have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Flamengo 0-3 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Palmeiras?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 48%, Palmeiras 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Flamengo) and 45% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Palmeiras in 38%; Palmeiras in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Flamengo's recent matches and 41% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Flamengo's recent games and 45% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Flamengo and Palmeiras share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 22, as Flamengo and Palmeiras drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.31 xG and Palmeiras 1.06 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.11 / defence 0.96 against Palmeiras attack 1.05 / defence 0.91, drawn from 58/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 42% | Draw 28% | Palmeiras 30%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 53%, Palmeiras 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Palmeiras's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Flamengo 1.83 PPG, Palmeiras 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.