Atletico Goianiense 1-4 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Botafogo at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atletico Goianiense vs Botafogo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Antônio Accioly plays host to Atletico Goianiense versus Botafogo in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 4 August 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Form
Atletico Goianiense (all games): 0W 4D 6L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Goianiense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atletico Goianiense's home record at Estádio Antônio Accioly: 0W 3D 6L from 9 Serie A appearances (0.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Botafogo's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Botafogo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Botafogo have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Botafogo are 1.60 PPG clear of Atletico Goianiense in recent Serie A fixtures (2.00 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Atletico Goianiense have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Botafogo in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Atletico Goianiense 0W, Botafogo 1W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Botafogo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Atletico Goianiense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Botafogo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Goianiense 60% versus Botafogo 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Goianiense 45% | Botafogo 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Goianiense 0.80 xG and Botafogo 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.683 / defence 1.360 | Botafogo attack 1.207 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.044. Atletico Goianiense's attack strength of 0.683 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Botafogo have an above-average attack strength of 1.207 — the away xG of 1.71 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 20 Atletico Goianiense games / 58 Botafogo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 17% | Draw 24% | Botafogo 59%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Goianiense 5.88 | Draw 4.17 | Botafogo 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Botafogo (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Botafogo as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Atletico Goianiense 67% | Botafogo 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Goianiense vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estádio Antônio Accioly • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Aug 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 17% | Draw 24% | Botafogo 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 45% | xG Atletico Goianiense 0.80 / Botafogo 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.683 / def 1.360 | Botafogo attack 1.207 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.044 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Atletico Goianiense xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Botafogo xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Goianiense vs Botafogo kick off?
Atletico Goianiense vs Botafogo kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 4 August 2024 at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What was the final score in Atletico Goianiense vs Botafogo?
Atletico Goianiense 1 - 4 Botafogo.
Where is Atletico Goianiense vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What competition is Atletico Goianiense vs Botafogo part of?
Atletico Goianiense vs Botafogo is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Goianiense vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Goianiense a 17% chance of winning, Botafogo a 59% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Goianiense vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Atletico Goianiense and Botafogo will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Goianiense vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Botafogo?
Record (3 meetings): Atletico Goianiense 0W | Draws 2 | Botafogo 1W.
What form are Atletico Goianiense and Botafogo in?
Atletico Goianiense (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Botafogo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Atletico Goianiense's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Botafogo's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. Flip it around — Botafogo's attack (1.21x) against Atletico Goianiense's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 20/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.5%), 0-2 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
17%
5.82
24%
4.23
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.9%
Away win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Atletico Goianiense xG
Total xG
2.51
1.71
Botafogo xG
5.82
17%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
18%
5.55
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
3%
32.30
27%
3.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 13.9 | 11.9 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Goianiense vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Atletico Goianiense and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Atletico Goianiense and 1.71 for Botafogo, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Goianiense vs Botafogo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 20 outings, Atletico Goianiense have picked up 0.60 PPG on a 2W 6D 12L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Atletico Goianiense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Botafogo's form line: 12W 4D 4L from 20 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-L. The sample for Botafogo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Botafogo are the form team by 1.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Atletico Goianiense.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Atletico Goianiense have posted 0.33 PPG from 9 outings (0W 3D 6L).
On the road, Botafogo have gone 5W 3D 1L from 9 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Botafogo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Atletico Goianiense are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Botafogo are on 1.55 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atletico Goianiense have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Botafogo in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Goianiense
Blended
Botafogo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Goianiense and Botafogo in coming into this match?
Atletico Goianiense have gone 2W 6D 12L in their last 20 games (0.60 PPG), while Botafogo have gone 12W 4D 4L in their last 20 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Goianiense at home or Botafogo away?
Botafogo's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Goianiense at home: 0.33 PPG; Botafogo away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Atletico Goianiense or Botafogo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Goianiense have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Botafogo in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Botafogo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Botafogo won 1-4 on 4 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atletico Goianiense have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Botafogo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Atletico Goianiense
2
Draws
2
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Botafogo?
From 4 meetings on record, Atletico Goianiense have won 0, Botafogo have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Goianiense and Botafogo last play each other?
They last met on 4 August 2024, when Atletico Goianiense 1-4 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Goianiense and Botafogo?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atletico Goianiense see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Botafogo see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Atletico Goianiense, 67% for Botafogo — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Atletico Goianiense) and 44% (Botafogo).
On the defensive side: Botafogo in 33%; Atletico Goianiense have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Goianiense home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Goianiense play Botafogo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Atletico Goianiense's games and 67% of Botafogo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atletico Goianiense vs Botafogo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Atletico Goianiense's recent games and 44% of Botafogo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Botafogo run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Atletico Goianiense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Atletico Goianiense 1-4 at Estádio Antônio Accioly, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Goianiense 0.80 xG and Botafogo 1.71 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Botafogo outscored their 1.71 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Goianiense attack 0.68 / defence 1.36 against Botafogo attack 1.21 / defence 0.88, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Goianiense 17% | Draw 24% | Botafogo 59%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Goianiense 45%, Botafogo 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Goianiense's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Botafogo's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.60. Form held, and they took the win. Atletico Goianiense (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Botafogo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.