Palmeiras 1-1 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 55%, yet in-form Flamengo provide a compelling counter-argument — this Palmeiras vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Palmeiras and Flamengo meet at Allianz Parque in Serie A, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 July 2023 at 01:00 UTC.
Current Form
Palmeiras's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palmeiras at Allianz Parque this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Palmeiras are significantly better at Allianz Parque than their overall form suggests.
Flamengo have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Flamengo have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Flamengo arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Palmeiras have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Flamengo in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Palmeiras, 1 for Flamengo and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Palmeiras — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Flamengo — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 49% versus Flamengo 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 51% | Flamengo 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 2.17 xG and Flamengo 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.179 / defence 0.973 | Flamengo attack 1.405 / defence 1.348. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.026. Flamengo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.348 — this is suppressing Palmeiras's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.405 — the away xG of 1.40 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Palmeiras games / 51 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 55% | Draw 21% | Flamengo 24%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.82 | Draw 4.76 | Flamengo 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Flamengo (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.57 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Palmeiras 60% | Flamengo 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Jul 2023, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 55% | Draw 21% | Flamengo 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 67% | xG Palmeiras 2.17 / Flamengo 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.179 / def 0.973 | Flamengo attack 1.405 / def 1.348 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.026 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Flamengo xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Flamengo kick off?
Palmeiras vs Flamengo kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 9 July 2023 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Flamengo?
Palmeiras 1 - 1 Flamengo.
Where is Palmeiras vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Flamengo part of?
Palmeiras vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 55% chance of winning, Flamengo a 24% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Palmeiras and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Flamengo?
Record (3 meetings): Palmeiras 0W | Draws 2 | Flamengo 1W.
What form are Palmeiras and Flamengo in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Flamengo (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Palmeiras's attack rating (1.18) and Flamengo's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 2.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Flamengo's attack (1.41x) against Palmeiras's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
55%
1.82
21%
4.87
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
3 – 1
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
3.57
1.40
Flamengo xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
11%
8.78
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
3%
35.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Palmeiras and 1.40 for Flamengo, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Flamengo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Palmeiras's recent record stands at 29W 17D 5L from 51 games, a 2.04 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Flamengo, meanwhile, have gone 26W 9D 16L across 51 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.04 PPG for Palmeiras against 1.71 for Flamengo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Palmeiras have managed 17W 5D 3L from 25 games — 2.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Flamengo's away record stands at 10W 5D 10L across 25 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Palmeiras are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.69 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Blended
Flamengo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 29W 17D 5L in their last 51 games (2.04 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 26W 9D 16L in their last 51 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Flamengo away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.24 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Flamengo in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Flamengo won 3-0 on 9 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palmeiras have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Flamengo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Palmeiras
5
Draws
4
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Flamengo?
From 10 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 1, Flamengo have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Flamengo 0-3 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 48%, Flamengo 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Palmeiras and 60% for Flamengo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Flamengo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Palmeiras's games and 68% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Palmeiras vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Palmeiras's matches and 60% of Flamengo's.
Do Palmeiras and Flamengo tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palmeiras and Flamengo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras and Flamengo finished level at 1-1 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 2.17 xG and Flamengo 1.40 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Palmeiras fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.18 / defence 0.97 against Flamengo attack 1.41 / defence 1.35, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 55% | Draw 21% | Flamengo 24%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 51%, Flamengo 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Flamengo's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palmeiras 2.04 PPG, Flamengo 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.