Fluminense 0-0 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 15 as Fluminense welcome Flamengo to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 July 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Fluminense have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fluminense's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Fluminense are significantly better at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho than their overall form suggests.
Flamengo — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Flamengo's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Flamengo's 2.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Fluminense's 1.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Fluminense register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Flamengo in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Fluminense, 1 for Flamengo and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 2–1 with Fluminense winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fluminense trading profile (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Flamengo trading profile (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 44% versus Flamengo 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fluminense 48% | Flamengo 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.98 xG and Flamengo 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 1.176 / defence 0.839 | Flamengo attack 1.357 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.009. Flamengo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing Fluminense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.357 — the away xG of 1.15 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Fluminense games / 52 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 56% | Draw 22% | Flamengo 21%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Flamengo 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Fluminense (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fluminense as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Flamengo (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fluminense 60% | Flamengo 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jul 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 56% | Draw 22% | Flamengo 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG Fluminense 1.98 / Flamengo 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 1.176 / def 0.839 | Flamengo attack 1.357 / def 1.253 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.009 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Flamengo xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Flamengo kick off?
Fluminense vs Flamengo kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 16 July 2023 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Flamengo?
Fluminense 0 - 0 Flamengo.
Where is Fluminense vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Flamengo part of?
Fluminense vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 56% chance of winning, Flamengo a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Fluminense and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Flamengo?
Record (3 meetings): Fluminense 2W | Draws 0 | Flamengo 1W.
What form are Fluminense and Flamengo in?
Fluminense (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Flamengo (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fluminense's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Flamengo's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Fluminense's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
56%
1.77
22%
4.50
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Fluminense xG
Total xG
3.13
1.15
Flamengo xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
14%
7.25
Win to Nil
18%
5.59
3%
33.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Fluminense and 1.15 for Flamengo, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Flamengo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, Fluminense have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 28W 10D 14L record — D-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Flamengo's form line: 26W 10D 16L from 52 games, 1.69 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fluminense on 1.81 PPG, Flamengo on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fluminense have posted 2.15 PPG from 26 outings (17W 5D 4L).
On the road, Flamengo have gone 10W 6D 10L from 26 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fluminense are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.67 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Blended
Flamengo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 28W 10D 14L in their last 52 games (1.81 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 26W 10D 16L in their last 52 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Flamengo away?
Fluminense's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 2.15 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Flamengo in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Fluminense's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fluminense
2
Draws
4
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Flamengo?
From 10 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 4, Flamengo have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Fluminense 1-2 Flamengo.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 54%, Flamengo 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Fluminense) and 58% (Flamengo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Flamengo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Fluminense's games and 69% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fluminense vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Fluminense's matches and 58% of Flamengo's.
Do Fluminense and Flamengo tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Fluminense's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 15, as Fluminense and Flamengo drew 0-0 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.98 xG and Flamengo 1.15 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fluminense fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Flamengo landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 1.18 / defence 0.84 against Flamengo attack 1.36 / defence 1.25, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 56% | Draw 22% | Flamengo 21%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 48%, Flamengo 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Flamengo's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.81 PPG, Flamengo 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fluminense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.