Internacional 0-0 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Internacional at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Internacional vs Palmeiras fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Palmeiras make the trip to Estádio José Pinheiro Borda to face Internacional in Serie A, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 16 July 2023 at 22:30 UTC.
Form
Internacional (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Internacional, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Internacional at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Internacional are significantly better at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda than their overall form suggests.
Palmeiras's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palmeiras's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Internacional, 1.40 for Palmeiras — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Internacional 1W, Palmeiras 2W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2022, ended 3–0 with Internacional winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Internacional — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Palmeiras — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Internacional 44% versus Palmeiras 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Internacional 40% | Palmeiras 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Internacional 0.99 xG and Palmeiras 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Internacional attack 0.922 / defence 0.823 | Palmeiras attack 1.197 / defence 0.804. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.006. Data: 52 Internacional games / 52 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Internacional 34% | Draw 32% | Palmeiras 34%. Fair-value odds: Internacional 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Palmeiras 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Internacional 40% | Palmeiras 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Internacional vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estádio José Pinheiro Borda • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jul 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Internacional 34% | Draw 32% | Palmeiras 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Internacional 0.99 / Palmeiras 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Internacional attack 0.922 / def 0.823 | Palmeiras attack 1.197 / def 0.804 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.006 • Poisson stance: Draw (32%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Internacional xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Palmeiras xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Internacional vs Palmeiras kick off?
Internacional vs Palmeiras kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 16 July 2023 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What was the final score in Internacional vs Palmeiras?
Internacional 0 - 0 Palmeiras.
Where is Internacional vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda.
What competition is Internacional vs Palmeiras part of?
Internacional vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Internacional vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Internacional a 34% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Internacional vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Internacional and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Internacional vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Palmeiras?
Record (3 meetings): Internacional 1W | Draws 0 | Palmeiras 2W.
What form are Internacional and Palmeiras in?
Internacional (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Palmeiras (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Internacional's attack at 0.92x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Palmeiras's attack (1.20x) against Internacional's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
34%
2.94
32%
3.12
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Internacional xG
Total xG
1.98
0.99
Palmeiras xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
13%
7.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 13.6 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Internacional vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Internacional and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Internacional and 0.99 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Internacional vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, Internacional have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 26W 16D 10L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Internacional is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palmeiras's form line: 29W 18D 5L from 52 games, 2.02 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-D. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.81 PPG for Internacional against 2.02 for Palmeiras. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Internacional have posted 2.28 PPG from 25 outings (17W 6D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.81 PPG overall — Internacional are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 12W 11D 2L from 25 away games — 1.88 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Internacional are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.75 scored and 0.77 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Internacional have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Palmeiras in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Internacional
Blended
Palmeiras
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Internacional and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Internacional have gone 26W 16D 10L in their last 52 games (1.81 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 29W 18D 5L in their last 52 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Internacional at home or Palmeiras away?
Internacional's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Internacional at home: 2.28 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Internacional or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Internacional have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Palmeiras have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Internacional won 3-0 on 13 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Internacional have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Palmeiras — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Internacional
2
Draws
6
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Internacional and Palmeiras?
From 10 meetings on record, Internacional have won 2, Palmeiras have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Internacional and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Internacional 1-3 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Internacional and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Internacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 28% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Internacional 40%, Palmeiras 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Internacional) and 44% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Internacional keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Palmeiras in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Internacional home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Internacional play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Internacional's recent matches and 48% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Internacional vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Internacional's recent games and 44% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Internacional and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Internacional have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Internacional's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Internacional and Palmeiras finished level at 0-0 at Estádio José Pinheiro Borda, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Internacional 0.99 xG and Palmeiras 0.99 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Internacional fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Palmeiras landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Internacional attack 0.92 / defence 0.82 against Palmeiras attack 1.20 / defence 0.80, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Internacional 34% | Draw 32% | Palmeiras 34%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Internacional 40%, Palmeiras 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Internacional's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Palmeiras's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Internacional 1.81 PPG, Palmeiras 2.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Internacional (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.