Coritiba 3-1 America Mineiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates America Mineiro at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coritiba vs America Mineiro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira plays host to Coritiba versus America Mineiro in Serie A, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 8 July 2023 at 22:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Coritiba have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Coritiba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Coritiba have posted 2W 5D 3L at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Coritiba are significantly better at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira than their overall form suggests.
America Mineiro (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for America Mineiro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
America Mineiro away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Coritiba have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, America Mineiro in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Coritiba, 1 for America Mineiro and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 0–2 with America Mineiro winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Coritiba — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
America Mineiro — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coritiba 53% versus America Mineiro 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coritiba 51% | America Mineiro 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.18 xG and America Mineiro 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.677 / defence 1.117 | America Mineiro attack 1.121 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.027. Coritiba's attack strength of 0.677 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. America Mineiro bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing Coritiba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Coritiba games / 51 America Mineiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 34% | Draw 27% | America Mineiro 39%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | America Mineiro 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates America Mineiro as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on America Mineiro if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Coritiba 60% | America Mineiro 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs America Mineiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jul 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 34% | Draw 27% | America Mineiro 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Coritiba 1.18 / America Mineiro 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.677 / def 1.117 | America Mineiro attack 1.121 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: America Mineiro (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
1.29
America Mineiro xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs America Mineiro kick off?
Coritiba vs America Mineiro kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 8 July 2023 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs America Mineiro?
Coritiba 3 - 1 America Mineiro.
Where is Coritiba vs America Mineiro being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs America Mineiro part of?
Coritiba vs America Mineiro is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs America Mineiro?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 34% chance of winning, America Mineiro a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making America Mineiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs America Mineiro?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Coritiba and America Mineiro will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs America Mineiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and America Mineiro?
Record (2 meetings): Coritiba 1W | Draws 0 | America Mineiro 1W.
What form are Coritiba and America Mineiro in?
Coritiba (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. America Mineiro (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Coritiba's attack rating (0.68) and America Mineiro's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — America Mineiro's attack (1.12x) against Coritiba's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
America Mineiro Win
34%
2.95
27%
3.68
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.47
1.29
America Mineiro xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
9%
10.67
12%
8.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.9 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs America Mineiro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Coritiba and America Mineiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.29 for America Mineiro, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs America Mineiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Coritiba's recent record stands at 13W 10D 28L from 51 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Coritiba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
America Mineiro, meanwhile, have gone 17W 11D 23L across 51 games — 1.22 PPG, with W-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for America Mineiro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Coritiba against 1.22 for America Mineiro. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Coritiba have managed 11W 7D 7L from 25 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.96 PPG overall — Coritiba are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
America Mineiro's away record stands at 6W 6D 13L across 25 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coritiba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Coritiba are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; America Mineiro are on 1.08 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Blended
America Mineiro
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coritiba and America Mineiro in coming into this match?
Coritiba have gone 13W 10D 28L in their last 51 games (0.96 PPG), while America Mineiro have gone 17W 11D 23L in their last 51 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coritiba at home or America Mineiro away?
Coritiba's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coritiba at home: 1.60 PPG; America Mineiro away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Coritiba go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Coritiba won 0-3 on 8 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coritiba have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against America Mineiro — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Coritiba
0
Draws
1
America Mineiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and America Mineiro?
From 4 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 3, America Mineiro have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and America Mineiro last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2023, when America Mineiro 0-3 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and America Mineiro?
Coritiba have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
America Mineiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coritiba 44%, America Mineiro 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Coritiba) and 52% (America Mineiro).
On the defensive side: Coritiba keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; America Mineiro in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / America Mineiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coritiba play America Mineiro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Coritiba's recent matches and 48% of America Mineiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coritiba vs America Mineiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Coritiba's recent games and 52% of America Mineiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coritiba and America Mineiro tend to score early?
Coritiba have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, America Mineiro in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Coritiba cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over America Mineiro.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coritiba beat America Mineiro 3-1 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 1.18 xG and America Mineiro 1.29 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Coritiba beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.68 / defence 1.12 against America Mineiro attack 1.12 / defence 1.28, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 34% | Draw 27% | America Mineiro 39%, with America Mineiro to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Coritiba win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coritiba 51%, America Mineiro 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coritiba's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
America Mineiro's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coritiba 0.96 PPG, America Mineiro 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coritiba win broke the near-deadlock. Coritiba (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm. America Mineiro (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.