Palmeiras 2-0 Corinthians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Palmeiras (52%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Palmeiras face Corinthians.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Palmeiras and Corinthians meet at Allianz Parque in Serie A (matchday 13). This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 2 July 2024 at 01:00 UK time.
Current Form
Palmeiras's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Palmeiras's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Corinthians have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Corinthians's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Palmeiras's 2.00 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Corinthians's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Palmeiras's last 10 home games and Corinthians's last 10 away games) — Palmeiras have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Corinthians in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Palmeiras have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Corinthians managing 0 and 1 draw.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2023, ended Palmeiras 0–0 Corinthians — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Palmeiras an edge — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading
Palmeiras half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Corinthians half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 40% versus Corinthians 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Palmeiras 46% | Corinthians 34%). Note also that Corinthians surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Palmeiras recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.48 xG and Corinthians 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.062 / defence 0.889 | Corinthians attack 0.835 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.070. Data: built from Palmeiras's last 50 games and Corinthians's last 50.
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 52% | Draw 30% | Corinthians 18%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.93 | Draw 3.33 | Corinthians 5.48. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palmeiras if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Palmeiras's last 10 home games and Corinthians's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Palmeiras 20% (last 10 home games) | Corinthians 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, matchday 13 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 July 2024 at 01:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 52% | Draw 30% | Corinthians 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Palmeiras 1.48 / Corinthians 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.062 / def 0.889 | Corinthians attack 0.835 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Corinthians xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Palmeiras vs Corinthians FAQs
What time does Palmeiras vs Corinthians kick off?
Palmeiras vs Corinthians kicked off at 01:00 UK time on Tuesday 2 July 2024 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
Palmeiras 2 - 0 Corinthians.
Where is Palmeiras vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Corinthians part of?
Palmeiras vs Corinthians is a Serie A fixture (matchday 13) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 52% chance of winning, Corinthians a 18% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Palmeiras and Corinthians will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Palmeiras vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Palmeiras's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Corinthians's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — Corinthians's attack (0.83x) against Palmeiras's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from Palmeiras's last 50 games and Corinthians's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
52%
1.93
30%
3.33
18%
5.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.28
0.79
Corinthians xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
5.48
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
4%
24.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 12.1 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Palmeiras vs Corinthians Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.79 for Corinthians, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 50 outings, Palmeiras have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 27W 12D 11L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Corinthians's form line: 13W 20D 17L from 50 games, 1.18 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-D.
Put side by side, Palmeiras are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Corinthians.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Palmeiras have posted 2.16 PPG from their last 25 home games (17W 3D 5L).
On the road, Corinthians have gone 6W 6D 13L from their last 25 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Palmeiras are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Corinthians are on 1.12 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Blended
Corinthians
Blended
Palmeiras (Home) vs Corinthians (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Palmeiras
Blended
Corinthians
Blended
❓ Palmeiras vs Corinthians Form FAQs
What form are Palmeiras and Corinthians in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 27W 12D 11L in their last 50 games (1.86 PPG), while Corinthians have gone 13W 20D 17L in their last 50 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Corinthians away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.16 PPG; Corinthians away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Corinthians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Corinthians in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Palmeiras and Corinthians, the earliest from April 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palmeiras won Palmeiras 3-0 Corinthians on 23 Apr 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palmeiras have gone 5W 0D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Corinthians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Palmeiras
3
Draws
1
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ Palmeiras vs Corinthians H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Corinthians?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Palmeiras have won 6, Corinthians have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Corinthians last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Palmeiras 4-1 Corinthians.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Corinthians?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 40%, Corinthians 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Palmeiras) and 36% (Corinthians).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Corinthians in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Palmeiras vs Corinthians Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Palmeiras and Corinthians matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 40% of Corinthians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Palmeiras and Corinthians matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Palmeiras's recent games and 36% of Corinthians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Corinthians matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 80% of Corinthians's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palmeiras cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Corinthians.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Corinthians 2-0 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.48 xG and Corinthians 0.79 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.06 / defence 0.89 against Corinthians attack 0.83 / defence 1.05, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 52% | Draw 30% | Corinthians 18%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 46%, Corinthians 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Corinthians's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Corinthians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.