Gremio 2-2 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Palmeiras (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Gremio face Palmeiras.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gremio host Palmeiras at Estádio Francisco Stédile in Serie A, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 4 July 2024 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gremio — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gremio's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 games at Estádio Francisco Stédile this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Francisco Stédile. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Gremio are significantly better at Estádio Francisco Stédile than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palmeiras stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Palmeiras have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Palmeiras — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Gremio have won 1, Palmeiras 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Gremio winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Gremio trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Palmeiras trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 53% versus Palmeiras 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gremio 55% | Palmeiras 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 0.91 xG and Palmeiras 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 0.811 / defence 0.941 | Palmeiras attack 1.177 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.078. Data: 49 Gremio games / 51 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 26% | Draw 33% | Palmeiras 41%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 3.85 | Draw 3.03 | Palmeiras 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Gremio 20% | Palmeiras 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estádio Francisco Stédile • Kick-off: Thursday 4 Jul 2024, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 26% | Draw 33% | Palmeiras 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Gremio 0.91 / Palmeiras 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 0.811 / def 0.941 | Palmeiras attack 1.177 / def 0.832 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Palmeiras xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Palmeiras kick off?
Gremio vs Palmeiras kicked off at 23:00 on Thursday 4 July 2024 at Estádio Francisco Stédile.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Palmeiras?
Gremio 2 - 2 Palmeiras.
Where is Gremio vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Francisco Stédile.
What competition is Gremio vs Palmeiras part of?
Gremio vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 26% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 41% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Gremio and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Palmeiras?
Record (4 meetings): Gremio 1W | Draws 0 | Palmeiras 3W.
What form are Gremio and Palmeiras in?
Gremio (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Palmeiras (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gremio's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Palmeiras's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Gremio's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
26%
3.79
33%
3.05
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Gremio xG
Total xG
2.11
1.19
Palmeiras xG
3.79
26%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
8%
12.51
16%
6.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 14.5 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Gremio and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Gremio and 1.19 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gremio come into this having played 49 games, going 24W 6D 19L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Palmeiras sit at 1.88 PPG from 49 outings (27W 11D 11L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gremio on 1.59 PPG, Palmeiras on 1.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gremio's home form reads 16W 2D 6L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.08 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.59 PPG overall — Gremio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Palmeiras have taken 1.58 points per game from 24 outings (10W 8D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gremio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gremio are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.59 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Blended
Palmeiras
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 24W 6D 19L in their last 49 games (1.59 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 27W 11D 11L in their last 49 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Palmeiras away?
Gremio's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 2.08 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Gremio or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gremio have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 May 2023, when Palmeiras won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gremio's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Gremio
1
Draws
6
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Palmeiras?
From 9 meetings on record, Gremio have won 2, Palmeiras have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Palmeiras 2-1 Gremio.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 42%, Palmeiras 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Gremio) and 46% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Gremio keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Palmeiras in 46%; Palmeiras in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Gremio's recent matches and 38% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gremio vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Gremio's recent games and 46% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gremio and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Gremio have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gremio and Palmeiras share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Francisco Stédile, Regular Season - 14, as Gremio and Palmeiras drew 2-2 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 0.91 xG and Palmeiras 1.19 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Gremio beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Palmeiras outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.81 / defence 0.94 against Palmeiras attack 1.18 / defence 0.83, drawn from 49/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 26% | Draw 33% | Palmeiras 41%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 55%, Palmeiras 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Palmeiras's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gremio 1.59 PPG, Palmeiras 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gremio (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palmeiras (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.