Fortaleza EC 3-0 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fortaleza EC host Palmeiras at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 27 June 2024 at 01:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortaleza EC stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fortaleza EC's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Fortaleza EC are significantly better at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Palmeiras have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Palmeiras's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Palmeiras — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Fortaleza EC, 2 for Palmeiras and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fortaleza EC trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Palmeiras trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 47% versus Palmeiras 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortaleza EC 42% | Palmeiras 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 0.78 xG and Palmeiras 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 0.900 / defence 0.823 | Palmeiras attack 1.297 / defence 0.653. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.084. Palmeiras's defence strength of 0.653 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Palmeiras have an above-average attack strength of 1.297 — the away xG of 1.16 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Fortaleza EC games / 49 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 23% | Draw 34% | Palmeiras 43%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 4.35 | Draw 2.94 | Palmeiras 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Fortaleza EC 60% | Palmeiras 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Thursday 27 Jun 2024, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 23% | Draw 34% | Palmeiras 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Fortaleza EC 0.78 / Palmeiras 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 0.900 / def 0.823 | Palmeiras attack 1.297 / def 0.653 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Palmeiras xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras kicked off at 01:30 on Thursday 27 June 2024 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Fortaleza EC 3 - 0 Palmeiras.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 23% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 43% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras?
Record (6 meetings): Fortaleza EC 2W | Draws 2 | Palmeiras 2W.
What form are Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Palmeiras (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fortaleza EC's attack rating (0.90) and Palmeiras's defence rating (0.65), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Fortaleza EC's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
23%
4.39
34%
2.90
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
1.94
1.16
Palmeiras xG
4.39
23%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
7%
13.96
20%
5.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 16.7 | 9.7 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 1.16 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 76 outings, Fortaleza EC have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 30W 19D 27L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Palmeiras's form line: 43W 22D 11L from 76 games, 1.99 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Palmeiras are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fortaleza EC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fortaleza EC have posted 1.63 PPG from 38 outings (16W 14D 8L).
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 16W 16D 6L from 38 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.71 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 30W 19D 27L in their last 76 games (1.43 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 43W 22D 11L in their last 76 (1.99 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or Palmeiras away?
Palmeiras's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 1.63 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Fortaleza EC or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 21 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2022, when Palmeiras won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortaleza EC's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Fortaleza EC
3
Draws
4
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortaleza EC have won 3, Palmeiras have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 21 September 2025, when Palmeiras 4-1 Fortaleza EC.
Who has won more matches between Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortaleza EC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortaleza EC 42%, Palmeiras 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Fortaleza EC) and 45% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Palmeiras in 40%; Fortaleza EC have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortaleza EC play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 50% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 45% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Fortaleza EC have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fortaleza EC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Palmeiras.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC beat Palmeiras 3-0 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 0.78 xG and Palmeiras 1.16 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Fortaleza EC beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Palmeiras landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 0.90 / defence 0.82 against Palmeiras attack 1.30 / defence 0.65, drawn from 48/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 23% | Draw 34% | Palmeiras 43%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Fortaleza EC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 42%, Palmeiras 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Palmeiras's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.99 PPG against 1.43. Form was overturned, with Fortaleza EC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.