Flamengo 2-1 Cruzeiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Flamengo vs Cruzeiro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Flamengo and Cruzeiro meet at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Serie A, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 June 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Current Form
Flamengo's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Flamengo at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cruzeiro (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Cruzeiro's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Flamengo have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Cruzeiro in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Flamengo, 0 for Cruzeiro and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2023, ended 2–0 with Flamengo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Flamengo — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Cruzeiro — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 47% versus Cruzeiro 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 53% | Cruzeiro 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.56 xG and Cruzeiro 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.061 / defence 0.962 | Cruzeiro attack 0.717 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.074. Data: 50 Flamengo games / 49 Cruzeiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 55% | Draw 29% | Cruzeiro 16%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.82 | Draw 3.45 | Cruzeiro 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (55%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 30% | Cruzeiro 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Cruzeiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jun 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 55% | Draw 29% | Cruzeiro 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG Flamengo 1.56 / Cruzeiro 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.061 / def 0.962 | Cruzeiro attack 0.717 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Cruzeiro xG
43%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Cruzeiro kick off?
Flamengo vs Cruzeiro kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 30 June 2024 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Cruzeiro?
Flamengo 2 - 1 Cruzeiro.
Where is Flamengo vs Cruzeiro being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Cruzeiro part of?
Flamengo vs Cruzeiro is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Cruzeiro?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 55% chance of winning, Cruzeiro a 16% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Cruzeiro?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Flamengo and Cruzeiro will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Cruzeiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Cruzeiro?
Record (2 meetings): Flamengo 1W | Draws 1 | Cruzeiro 0W.
What form are Flamengo and Cruzeiro in?
Flamengo (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Cruzeiro (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Flamengo's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Cruzeiro's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Cruzeiro's attack (0.72x) against Flamengo's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 50/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 2-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
55%
1.81
29%
3.45
16%
6.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.30
0.74
Cruzeiro xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
6.31
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
26%
3.80
3%
30.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 11.6 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Cruzeiro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Cruzeiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.74 for Cruzeiro, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Cruzeiro?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Flamengo come into this having played 38 games, going 19W 9D 10L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Cruzeiro sit at 1.24 PPG from 38 outings (11W 14D 13L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-D across their last five.
Flamengo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Cruzeiro — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Flamengo's home form reads 10W 5D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Cruzeiro have taken 1.42 points per game from 19 outings (7W 6D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Flamengo are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Cruzeiro are on 0.92 scored and 0.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cruzeiro in 29%.
Defensively: Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Cruzeiro in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Cruzeiro
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Cruzeiro in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 19W 9D 10L in their last 38 games (1.74 PPG), while Cruzeiro have gone 11W 14D 13L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Cruzeiro away?
Flamengo's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.84 PPG; Cruzeiro away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Cruzeiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Cruzeiro in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Flamengo have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cruzeiro — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Flamengo
2
Draws
1
Cruzeiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Cruzeiro?
From 7 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 4, Cruzeiro have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Cruzeiro last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2026, when Flamengo 2-0 Cruzeiro.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Cruzeiro?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Cruzeiro see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 37% (Flamengo) and 21% (Cruzeiro) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Flamengo) and 37% (Cruzeiro).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Cruzeiro in 53%; Cruzeiro in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Cruzeiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Cruzeiro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Flamengo's recent matches and 21% of Cruzeiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Cruzeiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Flamengo's recent games and 37% of Cruzeiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Cruzeiro tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Cruzeiro in 42% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Flamengo edge out Cruzeiro 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Cruzeiro 2-1 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.56 xG and Cruzeiro 0.74 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.06 / defence 0.96 against Cruzeiro attack 0.72 / defence 1.10, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 55% | Draw 29% | Cruzeiro 16%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 53%, Cruzeiro 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Cruzeiro's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.