Palmeiras 2-3 Ceara – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palmeiras vs Ceara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Allianz Parque plays host to Palmeiras versus Ceara in Serie A, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 10 April 2022 at 01:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Palmeiras have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Palmeiras's home record at Allianz Parque: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ceara's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Ceara have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Palmeiras, 1.70 for Ceara — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Palmeiras have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Ceara in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Palmeiras 2W, Ceara 0W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2021, ended 1–0 with Palmeiras winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Palmeiras goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Ceara goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 53% versus Ceara 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 55% | Ceara 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.37 xG and Ceara 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.068 / defence 1.102 | Ceara attack 1.017 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 0.859. Data: 38 Palmeiras games / 38 Ceara games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 45% | Draw 30% | Ceara 25%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Ceara 4.00. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Palmeiras as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palmeiras if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Palmeiras 60% | Ceara 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Ceara | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 45% | Draw 30% | Ceara 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Palmeiras 1.37 / Ceara 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.068 / def 1.102 | Ceara attack 1.017 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.294 / away 0.859 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Ceara xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Ceara kick off?
Palmeiras vs Ceara kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Ceara?
Palmeiras 2 - 3 Ceara.
Where is Palmeiras vs Ceara being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Ceara part of?
Palmeiras vs Ceara is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Ceara?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 45% chance of winning, Ceara a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Ceara?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Palmeiras and Ceara will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Ceara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Ceara?
Record (2 meetings): Palmeiras 2W | Draws 0 | Ceara 0W.
What form are Palmeiras and Ceara in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Ceara (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Palmeiras's attack at 1.07x the league average against Ceara's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ceara's attack (1.02x) against Palmeiras's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
45%
2.23
30%
3.32
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.33
0.96
Ceara xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
17%
5.84
6%
15.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.8 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Ceara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Ceara expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.96 for Ceara, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Ceara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Palmeiras's recent record stands at 20W 6D 12L from 38 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-W in the last five.
Ceara, meanwhile, have gone 11W 17D 10L across 38 games — 1.32 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palmeiras by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ceara heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Palmeiras have managed 11W 3D 5L from 19 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ceara's away record stands at 1W 10D 8L across 19 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ceara's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Palmeiras are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Ceara are on 1.03 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Ceara in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Current Season
Ceara
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Ceara in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 20W 6D 12L in their last 38 games (1.74 PPG), while Ceara have gone 11W 17D 10L in their last 38 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Ceara away?
Palmeiras's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 1.89 PPG; Ceara away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Ceara been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Ceara in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Palmeiras go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palmeiras have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ceara — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Palmeiras
0
Draws
1
Ceara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Ceara?
From 6 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 5, Ceara have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Ceara last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when Ceara 1-3 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Ceara?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Ceara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 63%, Ceara 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Palmeiras) and 37% (Ceara).
On the defensive side: Ceara in 32%; Ceara in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Ceara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Ceara?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Palmeiras's games and 53% of Ceara's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Palmeiras vs Ceara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Palmeiras's recent games and 37% of Ceara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Ceara tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Ceara in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ceara defy the odds to beat Palmeiras 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ceara beat Palmeiras 2-3 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.37 xG and Ceara 0.96 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Ceara outscored their 0.96 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.07 / defence 1.10 against Ceara attack 1.02 / defence 0.99, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 45% | Draw 30% | Ceara 25%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Ceara win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 55%, Ceara 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Ceara's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.32. Form was overturned, with Ceara winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Palmeiras (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ceara (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.