Atletico Goianiense 1-1 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Goianiense at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atletico Goianiense vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Flamengo travel to Estádio Antônio Accioly to take on Atletico Goianiense. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 April 2022, 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atletico Goianiense stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Atletico Goianiense's home record at Estádio Antônio Accioly: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie A games this season, Flamengo have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Flamengo away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Atletico Goianiense at 1.60 PPG versus Flamengo's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Atletico Goianiense have won 1, Flamengo 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2021, ended 2–0 with Atletico Goianiense winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Atletico Goianiense trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 26% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 16% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Flamengo trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Goianiense 40% versus Flamengo 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Goianiense 29% | Flamengo 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Goianiense 1.22 xG and Flamengo 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.947 / defence 0.958 | Flamengo attack 1.265 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 0.860. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.265 — the away xG of 1.04 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Atletico Goianiense games / 38 Flamengo games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 40% | Draw 30% | Flamengo 31%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Goianiense 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Flamengo 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atletico Goianiense are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atletico Goianiense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Atletico Goianiense 50% | Flamengo 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Goianiense vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estádio Antônio Accioly • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 40% | Draw 30% | Flamengo 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Atletico Goianiense 1.22 / Flamengo 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.947 / def 0.958 | Flamengo attack 1.265 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.300 / away 0.860 • Poisson stance: Atletico Goianiense (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Atletico Goianiense xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Flamengo xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Goianiense vs Flamengo kick off?
Atletico Goianiense vs Flamengo kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What was the final score in Atletico Goianiense vs Flamengo?
Atletico Goianiense 1 - 1 Flamengo.
Where is Atletico Goianiense vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What competition is Atletico Goianiense vs Flamengo part of?
Atletico Goianiense vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Goianiense vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Goianiense a 40% chance of winning, Flamengo a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Atletico Goianiense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Goianiense vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Atletico Goianiense and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Goianiense vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Flamengo?
Record (2 meetings): Atletico Goianiense 1W | Draws 0 | Flamengo 1W.
What form are Atletico Goianiense and Flamengo in?
Atletico Goianiense (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Flamengo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Atletico Goianiense's attack at 0.95x the league average against Flamengo's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Atletico Goianiense's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Goianiense Win
40%
2.52
30%
3.39
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Atletico Goianiense xG
Total xG
2.27
1.04
Flamengo xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
14%
7.14
9%
11.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.8 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Goianiense vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Atletico Goianiense and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Atletico Goianiense and 1.04 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Goianiense vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Atletico Goianiense have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 13W 14D 11L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Flamengo's form line: 21W 8D 9L from 38 games, 1.87 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Flamengo are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Atletico Goianiense.
Venue Form
On home soil, Atletico Goianiense have posted 1.47 PPG from 19 outings (6W 10D 3L).
On the road, Flamengo have gone 8W 7D 4L from 19 away games — 1.63 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Atletico Goianiense are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.82 scored and 0.95 conceded. Flamengo's attacking output running into Atletico Goianiense's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Atletico Goianiense have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Flamengo in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Goianiense
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Goianiense and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Atletico Goianiense have gone 13W 14D 11L in their last 38 games (1.39 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 21W 8D 9L in their last 38 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Goianiense at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Goianiense at home: 1.47 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Atletico Goianiense or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Goianiense have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Flamengo in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 July 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Flamengo have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Jul 2022, when Flamengo won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atletico Goianiense's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Atletico Goianiense
1
Draws
4
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Flamengo?
From 6 meetings on record, Atletico Goianiense have won 1, Flamengo have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Goianiense and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 28 July 2024, when Flamengo 2-0 Atletico Goianiense.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Goianiense and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atletico Goianiense tend to start slowly — only 26% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Goianiense 42%, Flamengo 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 16% (Atletico Goianiense) and 63% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Atletico Goianiense keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Atletico Goianiense have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Goianiense home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Goianiense play Flamengo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Atletico Goianiense's recent matches and 63% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico Goianiense vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 16% of Atletico Goianiense's recent games and 63% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Goianiense and Flamengo tend to score early?
Atletico Goianiense have had a goal before half-time in 26% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atletico Goianiense and Flamengo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Goianiense and Flamengo finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Antônio Accioly, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Goianiense 1.22 xG and Flamengo 1.04 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Goianiense attack 0.95 / defence 0.96 against Flamengo attack 1.26 / defence 0.99, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Goianiense 40% | Draw 30% | Flamengo 31%, with Atletico Goianiense to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Goianiense 29%, Flamengo 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Goianiense's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Flamengo's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.